豆油期货日报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding after previous adjustments and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term. Considering the current pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle with weak demand and reduced supply - side压榨量, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 6, 2026, the opening price of the main soybean oil futures contract (Y.DCE) on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7,868.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,928.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,866.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,912.0 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 263,014 lots, the trading value was 20.77839 billion yuan, and the latest open interest was 621,847 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 6, 2026, the basis of the main soybean oil futures contract was 518.0 yuan/ton. With the futures closing price at 7,912.0 yuan/ton, the spot price was higher than the futures price, showing a pattern of strong spot and weak futures [5] 3.3影响因素 - 产业资讯: Affected by the international market, the soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose on January 5, providing some support for domestic soybean oil futures. On January 6, the mainstream reference price of domestic first - grade soybean oil was 8,420 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan increase from the previous working day, with a 0.48% increase. On that day, the oil mill operating rate was about 52.29%. Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.88 million tons, a 220,000 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 100,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. Since January 1, 2026, the pilot policy of verified deduction of input VAT on agricultural products in the soybean oil processing industry has been stopped [6] - 技术分析: In the past month, the soybean oil futures price showed a pattern of volatile decline followed by a stable rebound. The price was around 8,230 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, then declined to a low of 7,712 yuan/ton on December 19, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. The closing price on January 6 was 7,912 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 2.6% from the previous low, indicating short - term price stabilization [7] 3.4行情展望 - 技术面预期: After the previous adjustment, the soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term [10] - 基本面展望: The current market is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle, but the demand is weak and the spot market trading is light. The reduction in the supply - side压榨量 provides some support for prices. Overall, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10]