黑色建材日报：钢材供强需弱，累库趋势显现-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions, with a significant increase in overall inventory. The price is currently in high - level oscillation, but there is a downward risk once the negotiation results are out [3]. - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both rising, and the inventory continues to increase. Coke is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation in the short term, and the supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose [5][6]. - The Indonesian reduction in coal supply has led to a steady increase in port coal prices. The thermal coal price is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the long - term supply pattern remains loose [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: The steel futures market rose and then fell yesterday. The spot market was weak, with a national building material turnover of 83,800 tons. This week, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated, while consumption declined; hot - rolled coil production increased but inventory decreased, and consumption also dropped [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: There are currently no contradictions in the steel supply - demand fundamentals. Supply has recovered month - on - month, consumption has declined, and inventory shows seasonal accumulation. The futures market reflects long - term expectations, while the spot market is relatively rational. The cost is generally stable, and enterprises maintain certain profits. Future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price oscillated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties were weaker, and the Platts Index was slightly adjusted downwards. This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, port inventory increased significantly, steel mills replenished inventory slightly, and the amount of stranded cargoes in ports increased [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, with a large increase in overall inventory and a slight improvement in downstream replenishment willingness. Due to the locked - in liquidity of some port supplies and uncertainties in long - term actual supply, the market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices. Once the negotiation results are out, the supply - demand contradiction will be exposed, and the price will face a downward risk. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain high - level oscillation with future steel mill resumption and replenishment [3]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Market Analysis: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated yesterday. The coke market was stable, and the expectation of further price reduction weakened significantly. The sentiment in the coking coal market improved, and some terminal procurement plans were advanced. The price of some Mongolian 5 coking coal spot has risen to 1,010 - 1,035 yuan/ton. This week, coking coal supply recovered, inventory continued to increase, and demand improved due to the resumption of hot metal production [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After the New Year's Day, with the resumption of blast furnaces and the winter storage replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival, the demand for coke is expected to improve. In the short term, coke will maintain an oscillatory operation benefiting from the rise in raw coal prices. The supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose. Although the rigid demand for coking coal has improved with the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the supply of coking coal has recovered relatively quickly, and the inventory accumulation trend has not been alleviated. The change in production - capacity increase in the origin needs further verification [6]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [6]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, coal prices accelerated to rise. Chemical customers had good rigid demand, high - calorie coal had good sales, but power plant demand was weak, and traders were cautious in procurement. In ports, the inventory of northern ports decreased rapidly recently, and due to the inverted shipping cost, upstream suppliers were less willing to sell at low prices. Indonesia reduced its coal production quota for 2026 and will retroactively collect this year's tariffs [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal has improved, and the supply in the production area is gradually recovering. The coal price is oscillating strongly. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - thermal coal [7]. - Strategy: Not provided in the content