钢材供强需弱，累库趋势显现

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The glass and soda ash markets show divergent trends due to supply disturbances. The double - silicon market has cooled in sentiment, waiting for major steel tenders [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market fluctuated upward yesterday. Some manufacturers raised prices, and spot - futures traders gradually entered the market, providing short - term support for prices. This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 151,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the manufacturer inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market fluctuated downward yesterday, and downstream demand for spot purchases was limited. This week, the soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, and the inventory was 1.5727 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the purchase by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and the market has expectations for the peak season after the Spring Festival. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [1] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market has increased, with supply rebounding month - on - month and demand weakening, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Considering the upcoming release of new production capacity and the expected increase in float glass cold - repair, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Continued attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate - No strategies are provided for inter - period and inter - commodity trading [2] Double - Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The market trading returned to rationality yesterday, and the bullish sentiment declined. The silicon manganese futures prices dropped. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The silicon ferrosilicon market was weak yesterday. As the steel tenders in January were in progress, traders were actively purchasing, and overall sales were good. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,350 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese are not favorable. The output is still higher than the demand, and the inventory has increased significantly. The resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for silicon manganese. Currently, the port inventory of manganese ore is low, providing a bottom support for silicon manganese prices. Silicon manganese is expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and changes in output [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions in the silicon ferrosilicon market have been alleviated compared to the previous period. Enterprises have actively reduced production, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. Considering the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the rigid demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. Due to the planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, the production cost of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is expected to increase. Silicon ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction, cost changes, and regional policies [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Expected to fluctuate - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate [4]