铝价冲高后快速回调

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the absolute price of electrolytic aluminum rises, the price drops rapidly with position reduction, and risks are released. The spot market shows signs of consumption shifting from peak to off - peak season, and attention should be paid to whether there is an unexpectedly large inventory accumulation after the price increase. The overall macro - direction has an upward expectation, but short - term price fluctuations caused by capital behavior should be watched out for [6]. - The alumina market remains in a situation of oversupply. Social inventory continues to increase, and the price lacks the impetus for continuous rise. Attention should be paid to the game between the decline in ore prices and domestic smelting production cuts. After the sentiment of non - ferrous commodities strengthens, alumina will present an opportunity for selling hedging [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 24,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 150 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 23,810 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes by 70 yuan/ton to - 340 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 24,030 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium changes by 85 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,350 yuan/ton, closed at 23,725 yuan/ton, a change of - 705 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,370 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,480 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 563,137 lots, and the position was 200,227 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 8, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 714,000 tons, a change of 30,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 90,208 tons, a change of 2,278 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 499,750 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 8, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,585 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,680 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,923 yuan/ton, closed at 2,863 yuan/ton, a change of - 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.58%, with a maximum price of 2,948 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,826 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,368,469 lots, and the position was 555,607 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 8, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 64,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5].