聚酯检修计划陆续出台，PTA走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The US plans to "sell on consignment" Venezuelan crude oil, intensifying the market's expectation of supply surplus in early 2026. Ukraine's negotiation progress may end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, causing a short - term sharp drop in oil prices. However, the situation in Iran remains tense [1]. - PX supply is expected to increase due to the high PXN, more overseas restart plans, and potential imports from arbitrage. There are many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is positive, but there are risks of increased supply and declining polyester demand [1]. - PTA's near - term devices are returning. The PTA balance sheet will see inventory reduction in December and moderate inventory accumulation in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2]. - Polyester's operating rate is 90.8% (up 0.4% month - on - month). Weaving load is declining, and there is a possibility of a sharp drop in downstream operating rates in January [2]. - PF's production profit is - 4 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton month - on - month). Due to weak downstream demand, inventory is increasing [3]. - PR's spot processing fee is 458 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton month - on - month). The short - term processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][22] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament profit, 1.4D physical inventory, and 1.4D equity inventory [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [74][79][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][89][96]