贵金属日报：地缘风险推升贵金属避险溢价-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven premium of precious metals. The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential slight rise in the demand for gold investment. The gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow again [1][8]. Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027. In terms of employment data, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations, and still in a historically low range. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,103.00 yuan/kg and closed at 18,450.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,142,360 lots, and the open interest was 281,631 lots. The night session closed at 18,368 yuan/kg, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.163%, a change of +0.015% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.677%, a change of -0.1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On January 8, 2026, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,317 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,803 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 316,913 lots, a change of -2.78% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 531 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,738 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,113,931 lots, a change of -4.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 16,100 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On January 8, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -4.20 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -439.81 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 54.09, a change of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.46, a change of -0.49% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 48,788 kg, a change of -22.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 2,833,448 kg, a change of 244.04% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 3,000 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to fluctuate between 990 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,500 yuan/kg and 19,000 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].