铜价震荡走弱，但后市仍相对看好

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Options: Sell Puts [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is currently facing tight mine - end supply, increased refined copper exports due to foreign premium, and reluctant selling of scrap copper. Demand is relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors. However, if copper prices fall, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is expected to rise. Therefore, it is recommended to buy and hedge in batches at low prices between 98,000 yuan/ton and 98,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the short - term decline of copper varieties caused by the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 8, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 103,200 yuan/ton and closed at 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,660 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quotation range was a discount of 180 yuan to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 65 yuan, narrowing by 15 yuan from the previous day. The spot mainstream price was between 101,470 - 102,700 yuan/ton. The main futures contract showed a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the spot will remain at a discount, and attention should be paid to the impact of market purchasing trends on the discount as the delivery date approaches [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from 1 trillion US dollars to 1.5 trillion US dollars in fiscal year 2027 [3]. - Employment data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations and still at a historical low. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [3]. - Mine end: Codelco's Chilean production area produced 1.333 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The target production in 2026 is 1.344 million tons [3]. 3.1.4 Smelting and Import - Fitch's BMI maintains the average copper price forecast for 2026 at 11,000 US dollars/ton. It points out that supply shortages, green transformation demand, and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy will support copper prices, but the weak real estate market in China may offset some demand growth. The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may face shortages [4]. 3.1.5 Consumption - S&P Global says that the growth of AI and the defense industry will increase global copper demand by 50% to 42 million tons by 2040. If recycling and mining are not improved, the annual supply shortage may exceed 10 million tons [5]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,850 tons to 141,075 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 12,211 tons to 108,685 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on January 8 was 273,800 tons, a change of 16,200 tons from the previous week [5].