新能源及有色金属日报：库存拐点已现，碳酸锂依然强势震荡-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory inflection point of lithium carbonate has emerged, and it remains strongly volatile. The current price is greatly affected by news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term sharp increases require caution regarding callback risks [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 8, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 140,860 yuan/ton and closed at 145,000 yuan/ton, with a 2.46% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 654,824 lots, and the open interest was 514,467 lots, up from 506,520 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 9,720 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 25,770 lots, a change of 590 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 132,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton, a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,825 US dollars/ton, a change of 70 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Despite the sharp decline in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors yesterday, lithium carbonate remained strong. It was mainly affected by supply - side disruptions and macro news. Some lithium salt plants in Sichuan and Qinghai are still under maintenance, and on January 7, relevant ministries held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry [2]. - According to SMM's latest statistics, the spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 715 tons; the downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,458 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,080 tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None [3].