塑料基差走强，下游开工仍偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - PE: Despite a short - term rebound in the PE price driven by the sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices and cost - side disturbances, the improvement in the PE supply - demand fundamentals is limited. There is still supply pressure due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, and the demand side remains weak as downstream industries are in the off - season. However, the short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The PP price continues to rebound due to the warming market sentiment, supply reduction expectations, and cost - side support. But there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of upstream device maintenance, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [3] - Strategy: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both LLDPE and PP. Continue to monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance, as the short - term supply - demand contradictions have not been improved, while geopolitical tensions are increasing cost - side disturbances and the strengthening of the coal sector is driving up market sentiment [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,628 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,484 yuan/ton (-2). The LL spot prices in North and East China are 6,520 yuan/ton (+20) and 6,600 yuan/ton (+70) respectively, and the PP spot price in East China is 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North and East China is - 108 yuan/ton (+34) and - 28 yuan/ton (+84) respectively, and the PP basis in East China is - 234 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 263.3 yuan/ton (+88.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 256.7 yuan/ton (+88.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 765.6 yuan/ton (+49.8) [1] - Import and Export: The LL import profit is 21.6 yuan/ton (-179.3), the PP import profit is - 300.5 yuan/ton (-21.3), and the PP export profit is - 34.1 US dollars/ton (-2.6) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.9% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand fundamentals improvement is limited. The supply pressure persists, and the demand side is weak. The short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The price rebounds, but there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of device maintenance, and the price rebound space is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait - and - see for LLDPE and PP. Monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4] - Inter - period: No strategy provided - Inter - variety: No strategy provided