尿素日报：下游跟单放缓-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas were lifted, leading to improved transactions. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, causing a slight increase in spot prices. However, the new orders slowed down with the price increase. The supply side saw a rise in supply as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The demand side was in the process of off - season storage procurement. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day, and the procurement improved. The start - up rate of melamine also rebounded with rigid demand procurement. The factory inventory of urea remained basically flat this week, while the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, and the lowest quotes were higher than the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The report suggests continuous monitoring of export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][3][4][5][6][8][9][14][16] 2. Urea Production - It covers the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates are presented [27][28][30] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and large - particle urea CFR in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, the differences between foreign and Chinese prices, and the urea export profit and disk export profit are included [32][36][39] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of orders to be delivered are shown [46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract are included [50][53][57] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile - Inter - period trading: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when the spread is low - Inter - variety trading: None [3]