纯苯苯乙烯日报：下游仍处于淡季低开工状态-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream is still in a low - operation state during the off - season. Pure benzene maintains a deep negative basis and high inventory pressure, and the arrival pressure in China remains. The downstream operation shows differentiation. Styrene's port inventory has not met the original expectation of inventory replenishment, and the operation at the bottom is still slowly recovering. The downstream is in the off - season of operation [1][3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spread - Figures related to pure benzene and styrene's basis and inter - period spread are presented, such as pure benzene's main basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and styrene's main basis, etc [8][13][17] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Information about production profits of pure benzene and styrene, and their internal - external spreads are shown, including naphtha processing fee, FOB and CFR price differences in different regions, and import profits [20][21][29] III. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Data on the inventory and operation rates of pure benzene and styrene are provided, like pure benzene's East China port inventory and operation rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, and operation rate [35][38][40] IV. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Information on the operation and production profits of styrene's downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) is given, including their operation rates and production profits [48][50][52] V. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Data about the operation and production profits of pure benzene's downstream products (caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, etc.) are presented, including their operation rates and production profits [59][63][71] Market News and Important Data - Pure Benzene: The main basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+57), port inventory is 31.80 tons (+1.80 tons), CFR China processing fee is 138 dollars/ton (+5 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 130 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton), US - Korea spread is 165.8 dollars/ton (-1.0 dollars/ton), and East China spot - M2 spread is - 190 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton). Downstream production profits and operation rates vary [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 103 yuan/ton (+56 yuan/ton), non - integrated production profit is 138 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) with expected gradual compression. East China port inventory is 132,300 tons (-6,500 tons), and commercial inventory is 77,300 tons (-6,000 tons). The operation rate is 70.9% (+0.7%) [1] - Styrene's Downstream Hard Rubber: EPS production profit is 109 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 291 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 1,074 yuan/ton (-39 yuan/ton). Their operation rates also change [2] Market Analysis - Pure Benzene: Upstream, the US turning Venezuelan crude oil into compliant oil supply suppresses oil prices, and attention should be paid to whether the US will take military action against Iran. Pure benzene has a deep negative basis and high inventory pressure. The downstream shows weak performance during the off - season, and the operation is differentiated [3] - Styrene: The port inventory has not met the inventory replenishment expectation, the operation at the bottom is still slowly recovering, and the downstream is in the off - season [3] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - Cross - Variety: Short BZ2603 and long EB2602 [4]