港口维持高库存，关注下游MTO检修兑现进度

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral for both unilateral and inter - period strategies, and there is no recommendation for cross - variety strategies [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total port inventory of methanol remains high, with a divergence where inventory in Zhejiang accumulates further and that in Jiangsu starts to decline. The inventory pressure is still significant, and the market is waiting for the expected peak and decline of the arrival volume. Attention should also be paid to the duration of the winter shutdown in Iran. There are concerns about the subsequent centralized maintenance of MTO due to low MTO profits. The expected maintenance of Xingxing in mid - January means large inventory pressure in January, and the possible maintenance of Shenghong and Bohua MTO in February - March and the first half of the year may weaken the de - stocking expectation from February to April [3] - The supply pressure on the mainland persists. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Southwest gas - based production in the second half of the month. The traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season with general performance, and the mainland factories are in a cycle of continuous inventory increase [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - There are multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, as well as the spread between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][13][20] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [24][25][29] 3.3 Methanol Start - up Rate and Inventory - The figures cover the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the mainland factory sample inventory, and the overall methanol start - up rate in China [31][38] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report presents regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [35][43][47] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether are shown [45][53]