新能源及有色金属日报：累库缓慢，现货升水坚挺-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Core View - Consumption shows signs of turning to the off - season but still has rigidity. Social inventory accumulation is slow, and the spot market supply remains tight with firm spot premiums. After the absolute price drops, downstream still maintains rigid - demand procurement. Domestic concentrate TC has stopped falling, while imported concentrate is still slightly declining. Although smelters' raw material inventory has increased after winter storage, the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting loss of domestic smelters has widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month - on - month. There is a possibility that the output in January will fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and there is optimism about future consumption. The interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The current market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited [5] Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is - $45.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,090 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,100 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On January 8, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,190 yuan/ton, closed at 23,975 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 151,811 lots, and the position was 83,786 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,230 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 23,845 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 118,500 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [4]