本周EG延续累库

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: EG2603 - EG2605 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The EG market continued to accumulate inventory this week. The production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton. The domestic supply load of ethylene glycol has risen to over 70%, and the import pressure will ease after February. The downstream demand is weakening, and the polyester load has declined [1][2] - The current price is not high, but the downstream implicit inventory has reached a high level, and the inventory at the port is rising. The pressure of new production is large, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still large, so the rebound space is limited [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3846 yuan/ton, with a change of - 33 yuan/ton (- 0.85%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3698 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.40%), and the spot basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton (a net increase of 1 dollar/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton (a net increase of 24 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the given text Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The weaving orders have weakened marginally, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has declined due to weakened profitability [2] Inventory Data - As of January 8, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 690,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from Monday. According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 844,000 tons (a net increase of 25,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 645,000 tons (a net increase of 28,000 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and inventory accumulation at the main ports is expected to continue [1][2]