天然橡胶期货日报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily Market Trend - The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fluctuating upward trend. The opening price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 16,130 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,790 yuan/ton, and it closed at 16,050 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 328,277 lots, and the open interest increased by 17,689 lots to 199,609 lots [1] 2. Spot Market Situation - The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,650 yuan/ton [1] 3. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - Supply side: The domestic Yunnan production area has entered the suspension period, and the raw material supply in Hainan and Vietnam is limited, which supports the rubber price. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 333,260.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level [1] - Macro aspect: On January 5, the US dollar index was 98.3291, which decreased compared with the previous period, alleviating the cost pressure of imported rubber priced in US dollars to a certain extent [1] 4. Short - Term Outlook and Factors to Watch - Supply side: In late January, the main production areas such as northeastern Thailand and Vietnam will gradually enter the production - reduction period, and the winter storage demand of processing plants in the production areas may support the upstream raw material prices [2] - Demand side: Although the capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises is currently differentiated, and some enterprises arrange short - term maintenance due to inventory and order pressure, the "Implementation Rules for the Subsidies for Replacing Old Cars with New Ones in 2026" has been implemented since January 1st, which is expected to support the automobile market and drive the recovery of tire demand [2] - Inventory: It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the changes in the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone and domestic social inventory. If the inventory growth slows down or there are signs of destocking, it may further boost market confidence [2][3] - Other factors: It is also necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in Southeast Asian production areas, the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the impact of macro - economic policies on the market [3]