农产品日报：宽松格局延续，豆粕维持震荡-20260109

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [6] 2) Core Views - For soybean meal, the current high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in downstream oil mills, combined with high import costs and low arrivals in the first quarter, make the market optimistic about near - month contracts. However, due to the expected high yield in South America and low costs, far - month contracts are relatively weak. Future attention should be paid to China's US soybean purchases and the new - season Brazilian soybean production [2] - For corn, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing but still lower than historical levels. They are mainly purchasing on - demand, and there will be some stocking demand before the Spring Festival. With the price increase, port transactions are sluggish. Although corn imports have increased significantly this month, the overall grain imports this year are still low due to previous Sino - US trade frictions. Future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: On the futures side, the soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton (-2.52%). On the spot side, prices and basis in different regions changed. In December 2025, Brazil's soybean exports were 338.3 million tons, with a daily average of 15.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 68.6%. The National Grain Exporters Association of Brazil expects 2026 exports to reach a record 112 million tons, with exports to China dropping to 77 million tons [1] - Corn and Corn Starch: On the futures side, the corn 2603 contract closed at 2266 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.80%); the corn starch 2603 contract closed at 2546 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.32%). On the spot side, prices and basis in different regions changed. In December 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 612.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.6%, and the export value was 1.33 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: High inventory, high import costs, and low arrivals in the first quarter affect contract expectations. South American production and domestic procurement are key factors [2] - Corn: Inventory is increasing but below historical levels. There is stocking demand before the Spring Festival. Price increases affect transactions, and import and auction situations need attention [4][5] Strategy - Soybean Meal: Cautiously bearish [3] - Corn: Neutral [6]