委油贸易流向变动持续，成本端支撑仍存

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, buy the main contract of BU on dips, avoid excessive chasing of rising prices [2] - Inter - period: Buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading) [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The trade flow of Venezuelan oil continues to change, and there is still support from the cost side. The domestic asphalt spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the supply - side support was solid. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the market support mainly comes from the cost side. The market is in a volatile stage after pricing in the expectation of tightened supply of Venezuelan oil. If the oil originally flowing to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the United States, domestic refineries may need to find alternative heavy - quality raw materials, which may lead to increased costs, but there is no expected shortage of raw materials [1] Market Analysis - On the afternoon of January 8th, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures was 3132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 224,334 lots, a net increase of 2,081 lots, and the trading volume was 244,582 lots, a decrease of 65,167 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,356 - 3,500 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,050 - 3,190 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,130 - 3,150 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,140 - 3,200 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The domestic asphalt spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the spot prices in East and South China continued to rise. The spot circulation volume of asphalt in some areas was still tight, and the supply - side support was solid. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the market support mainly comes from the cost side. The expectation of tightened supply of Venezuelan oil to domestic refineries is continuously being realized. If the oil originally flowing to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the United States, domestic refineries may need to find alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc., which may lead to increased costs, but there is no expected shortage of raw materials [1] Figures Information - The report includes figures on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the near - month spread, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]