加拿大总理预计访华，或影响菜系价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The price of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The market anticipates that the tariff policy for rapeseed oil may be adjusted with the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, leading to significant fluctuations in the market [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Futures Prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,612.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +50 yuan and a change rate of +0.58%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,944.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of -14.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.18%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,956.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of -139.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.53% [1] - Spot Prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,580.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +80.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.94%, and the spot basis was P05 - 32.00, with a day-on-day change of +30.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +10.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 396.00, with a day-on-day change of +24.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,710.00 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of -140.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.42%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 754.00, with a day-on-day change of -1.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - Indonesian Policy Dynamics: Due to financial constraints, Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax to support the biodiesel program. The B50 biodiesel road test started in December, and the program is planned to be implemented in the second half of this year. In 2025, the country's biodiesel consumption increased by 7.6% year-on-year [2] - Supply Concerns: Indonesian President Prabowo stated that this year, 4 to 5 million hectares of illegally operated palm oil plantations may be expropriated. Last year, his working group took over more than 4 million hectares of forest land [2] - SPPOMA Data: From December 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 7.39% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, and the output decreased by 8.07% month-on-month [2] - MPOA Data: The estimated palm oil output in Malaysia in December decreased by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons [2] - Demand: Affected by weak winter demand and the substitution of competing products, India's palm oil imports in December dropped to an eight - month low [2] - USDA Commissioner Report: The U.S. Department of Agriculture's commissioner in Kuala Lumpur predicted that given Indonesia's promotion of the B50 policy, Malaysia's exports are expected to benefit. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the 2025/26 fiscal year will be approximately 16.2 million tons, and the ending inventory will drop to 2.16 million tons [2] - Canada - China Relations: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to visit China next week. China's Ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, stated that Beijing is willing to cancel the tariff on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Ottawa canceling the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles [2]