2月合约临近交割，关注下半月价格修正情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of the month. The 02 contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1750 - 1850 points under relatively pessimistic estimates, and its valuation support is expected to be in this range. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards, but the situation of contracts in June and August remains uncertain. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [5][6][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 8, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,139.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,089.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1706.00, 1163.30, 1415.00, 1527.40, 1105.20, and 1343.00 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping companies vary. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk's price in the fourth week of January was 1685/2710; HPL's quotes in the first and second half - months of January and the first half - month of February were 1835/3035. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes and changes [1][2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. In terms of delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, and in February it was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 279,000 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in January, 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings in February, and 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, which will put pressure on the far - month contract prices [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. The demand situation is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival [5]