沪指走出15连阳，关注美国12月非农数据

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with policy expectations fluctuating, internal and external economic conditions diverging, and certain opportunities and risks in different sectors [2][3][4] - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as colored metals, precious metals, and consider potential investment opportunities through operations like buying on dips [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are swinging. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market sentiment and macro - situation are somewhat deviated. Attention should be paid to domestic policy introductions and Trump's Fed chair candidates. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's holiday may drive up commodity prices [2] - On January 8, the A - share market was volatile, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 15 consecutive positive days. The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2] Economic Data - Internationally, there is a divergence in economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both returned to the expansion range, and foreign exchange reserves increased. The US manufacturing index declined slightly, and the service index reached a new high [3] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The US Supreme Court will rule on tariff issues on January 9, and Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes [3][7] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, colored metals and precious metals with high certainty are still the focus. There are signs of price increases spreading from individual products to the whole market, and opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses should be noted. Among colored metals, aluminum is a preferred choice [4] - In the energy sector, geopolitical events during the holiday did not drive up oil prices. The key lies in the expected increase in crude oil supply after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol and PTA is worth attention. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored [4] - In the precious metals market, there are opportunities to buy on dips, but short - term silver risks have increased. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is undergoing a weight re - balancing, causing a liquidity shock [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and colored metals [5] Important News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly and achieved 15 consecutive positive days, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 1%. About 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.82 trillion yuan [7] - Four ministries jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to regulate industry competition order, involving 16 enterprises and two industry associations [7] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December was lower than expected, and the service index reached a new high. Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes and hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [7] - The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2][7] - In the commodity futures market, some products like polysilicon and container shipping on the European route fell, while others like coking coal and glass rose [7]