郑棉期价高位回落，白糖延续窄幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core View of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell from a high, while the sugar futures price continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The pulp futures price weakened. In the cotton market, both global and domestic supply and demand have decreased, and the short - term price is under pressure, but the medium - to - long - term price may fluctuate upward. In the sugar market, the global sugar market is in a state of surplus, and the domestic sugar price is expected to bottom out through fluctuations. In the pulp market, overseas supply is disrupted, and domestic demand may gradually recover, but the rebound height depends on future demand and inventory digestion [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Industry Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,740 yuan/ton, a change of - 295 yuan/ton (- 1.96%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, a change of + 164 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,992 yuan/ton, a change of + 208 yuan/ton. In December, Brazil's cotton exports were 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, with China as the main destination [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply and demand data in December was small, with both production and demand decreasing in the 25/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. The US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. In the short term, ICE US cotton is expected to be under pressure, but in the medium - to - long - term, the downward space is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased as sales accelerated. However, the demand side showed a marginal weakening trend [2] Strategy - A neutral stance is suggested. In the whole year, the domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be in a relatively balanced state, and there is a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate upward, but short - term high - level callback risks need to be警惕 [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5279 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5230 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton. As of January 7, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugar cane crushing volume decreased by 25.35% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 27.03% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a state of surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the downward space for raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long term, the sugar price should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third consecutive year, and the supply is growing seasonally. The import pressure remains, but the import volume of syrup and premixes may decrease in the future [5][6] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. The domestic fundamentals still put downward pressure on the price. Although the current valuation is low, the price may bottom out through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5504 yuan/ton, a change of - 92 yuan/ton (- 1.64%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5140 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price weakened. Overseas, there have been continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance. In terms of demand, the European port pulp inventory continued to decline in November, and the demand improved. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was still at a high level. However, the port inventory has shown a downward trend recently, and the increasing paper production capacity in the future may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - A neutral stance is advised. Overseas supply disruptions and pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expectations may lead to a mild recovery in domestic demand, but the rebound height depends on future demand improvement and inventory digestion [9]