新能源及有色金属日报：双硅同步大跌，供需问题仍存-20260109

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. With both supply and demand decreasing, along with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices, price support is obvious. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate around 53,000 yuan/ton. Policy factors may have contributed to the sharp price drop. In the off - season of the photovoltaic market, terminal demand is weak, downstream inventories are abundant, and substantial market demand is sluggish. In the short term, pay attention to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the long term, focus on the implementation of the storage policy and inventory depletion progress [3][6]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,535 yuan/ton, a change of - 405 yuan/ton (- 4.53%) from the previous day's settlement. At the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 260,531 lots. On January 7, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,799 lots, a change of 112 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.7 million tons, a change of 0.36% from the previous week [1]. Demand Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. Recently, an orange pollution alert was issued in Shihezi, Xinjiang, and the expected supply contraction supported the price increase. The weekly output of silicone enterprises changed little. Under the background of emission reduction and price support, silicone monomer enterprises began to reduce production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The recycled aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the reduced - production state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [2]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fell sharply to the daily limit, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,610 yuan/ton, a 9.00% drop from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 58,049 lots (67,800 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 39,605 lots [3]. Supply and Inventory - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. N - type material was 52.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (unit not specified), a 0.90% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 23.19GW, a 6.92% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 5.10% change, and silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a - 1.45% change [3]. Downstream Product Prices - Silicon wafers: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece. - Battery cells: High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W. - Components: PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.71 - 0.72 yuan/W [4][5]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate in the range around 53,000 yuan/ton. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [6].