蛋白数据日报-20260109

Group 1: Core Views - The 2025/26 ending stock forecast of US soybeans remains at 290 million bushels, and the stock-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply and demand report [9]. - There is no obvious driving factor in South American weather in the short term. Brazil has started harvesting. Under the expectation of high Brazilian soybean production, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium [10]. - There are rumors that China will restart the auction of imported soybeans; Sino-Canadian relations are expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed; the macro sentiment has cooled down, and the domestic market has returned to fundamentals with an obvious decline. Recently, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium [10]. Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in different regions on January 8: Tianjin was 418 with a change of 59; Rizhao was 378 with a change of 49; Zhangjiagang was 368 with a change of 59; Dongguan was 358 with a change of 29; Zhanjiang was 398 with a change of 29; Fangcheng was 418 with a change of 49. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73 with a change of 54 [6]. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 648 with a change of -8; the futures spread of the main contract was 32 [7]. Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9807 with a change of 162. The futures crushing profit was 4 yuan/ton. The CNF premium of 2025 soybeans and the futures gross profit of imported soybeans in different months from Brazil were also presented [7].