航运衍生品数据日报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The SCFIS index reported 1795 points, showing a strong and volatile pattern. Its trend is mainly influenced by the expected actual freight rates of liner companies in late January. The current main contract fluctuates violently without a one - way trend, and the price oscillates around the key central level of 1800 points. The market will remain strongly volatile, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Freight Index - Current and Previous Values and Fluctuations: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) comprehensive index is 1656, up 6.66% from the previous value of 1553; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1147, up 1.95% from 1125. SCFI - US West is 2188, up 9.84% from 1992; SCFIS - US West is 1250, down 3.92% from 1301; SCFI - US East is 3033, up 6.57% from 2846; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1690, up 10.24% from 1533; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1795, up 3.04% from 1742; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3143, up 10.94% from 2833 [5]. b. Spot Freight Price - European Line Freight: The current European line freight is in high - level oscillation. The second - half - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those in the first half - month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight level, and the individual quote of MSC has a significant increase. For example, in the OA alliance, from wk1 (12/20 - 1/4) to wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the 20GP increased from 1535 to 1824, and the 40GP increased from 2631 to 3068 [6]. c. Market Logic - Market Fluctuation Reasons: The market is affected by the expected actual freight rates of liner companies in late January. The main contract fluctuates violently. The morning trading on the previous day was affected by msk's fourth - week opening offer of 2800, up 100 month - on - month, indicating that airlines think the freight rate peak may appear in late January. The afternoon trading saw a price adjustment (for Gdansk Port), a decrease of 300, causing market panic. However, the volume of Gdansk in the container field is about 16% of Rotterdam and is not included in the index, so it is necessary to observe whether the prices of mainstream ports follow the decline [9]. d. Strategy - Investment Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [10].