生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260109

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Domestic sugar spot prices have slightly recovered due to concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi's sugar production. Globally, sugar is in a supply - surplus situation. The SR2605 contract is recommended to hold positions, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400 [4]. - Pulp: Pulp supply pressure is gradually alleviating, but overseas producer inventory is at a two - year high. The upward space for pulp is limited, and it is supported by the increase in delivery costs after the reduction of Russian needle pulp warehouse receipts. The 2605 contract has resistance at 5700 - 5800 and support at 5400 - 5450 [4][5]. - Offset Paper: After the New Year's Day holiday, the offset paper spot market remained stable. The increase in paper mill inventory and the large fluctuation of raw material pulp prices limit the upward space of the offset paper futures. The 2605 contract has support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4300 - 4500 [6][7]. - Cotton: Globally and in the US, cotton supply is expected to be abundant, but the marginal negative impact is decreasing. In China, there are expectations of tight supply at the end of the year and a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. The 05 contract is expected to have a rising center of gravity, but there may be a short - term adjustment [9]. - Apples: The apple 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and rising purchase prices. However, due to concerns about consumption, the upward momentum has slowed. It is expected to remain in a high - range [11]. - Jujubes: Jujube spot prices are stable, and futures prices have rebounded. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the new - jujube production reduction expectation has cooled down. The 2605 contract is recommended to close short positions below 9000, and investors can consider a reverse spread strategy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with support at 8800 - 8900 and resistance at 10000 - 10200; for Jujube 2605, it is recommended to buy on dips, with support at 8700 - 9000 and resistance at 9500 - 9800 [21]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400; for Pulp 2605, it is recommended to be long in the range, with support at 5300 - 5400 and resistance at 5600 - 5800; for Offset Paper 2605, it is recommended to wait and see, with support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4200 - 4300; for Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 13500 - 13600 and resistance at 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: In November 2025, fresh apple exports increased by 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased compared to the pre - New Year's Day level. The spot price in the producing area was stable, and the sales volume increased, while the low - quality goods in the sales area were weak [22][23]. - Jujube Market: As of January 4, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 1.57% month - on - month and increased by 38.34% year - on - year. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the arrival in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales season [24]. - Sugar Market: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production decreased. In China, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan and Guangdong has increased, and Inner Mongolia's sugar production is expected to increase [24][25]. - Pulp Market: As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, the price of BHK pulp in Asia increased by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. - Offset Paper Market: The inventory days of offset paper increased, and the social demand was weak. The start - up rate increased due to publication orders [30]. - Cotton Market: In December, Brazil's cotton exports reached a record high, and Vietnam's cotton imports increased. As of January 5, 2026, the cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Bonded Area decreased year - on - year. The Xinjiang Cotton Planting Industry Chain Conference will be held on January 9 [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market: The closing prices of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 all decreased on the day, with declines of - 0.54%, - 0.82%, - 0.04%, - 1.64%, and - 1.96% respectively [32]. - Spot Market: The spot price of apples remained unchanged month - on - month and increased year - on - year; jujubes decreased month - on - month and year - on - year; sugar remained unchanged month - on - month and decreased year - on - year; pulp remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; offset paper remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; cotton increased month - on - month and year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: The current value is 1080, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 and a year - on - year increase of 1568. It is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread: The current value is 55, with a month - on - month increase of 90 and a year - on - year decrease of 535. It is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 11, with a month - on - month increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 137. It is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 190, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 2263 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 888. - Sugar: 6005 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - Pulp: 135,506 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 202,275. - Cotton: 7189 warehouse receipts, with a month - on - month increase of 140 and a year - on - year increase of 2847 [93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [97].