Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is better to be on the sidelines [1][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum suggests more waiting and watching; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are to be watched temporarily; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][18] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish; apples are slightly bullish; red dates are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies in the near - term contracts and cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs' 02 contract is suitable for hedging on rallies for breeding enterprises; corn is to avoid chasing high in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal is to be treated bullishly in the near - term and bearishly in the far - term; oils have limited rebound, with soybean and palm oil not recommended to chase the rally and rapeseed oil showing a weak trend [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, cost - profit factors, and policy expectations. Different products face different market situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their characteristics [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic. After December's PMI returned to expansion and with strong expectations of early policy support at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks increase, and the potential for a callback should be noticed [5] - Treasury Bonds: They are expected to trade sideways. The current low static returns of bonds, high - intensity long - term bond supply, and short - lived market reactions to positive factors do not provide sufficient reasons for institutions to increase bond allocations significantly [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: It is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. The bearish logic is high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand, while the bullish side relies on domestic mine production cuts and cost support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is above the electric furnace off - peak electricity cost, with neutral valuation. After major meetings, the expected policies are stable, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened with increased production, decreased demand, and seasonal inventory accumulation [7] - Glass: It is better to wait and watch. Although there are positive expectations on the supply side, the demand is weak. There are still potential positive driving factors in the short term, but the overall market is complex, and the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: It has reached new highs and is recommended to hold long positions cautiously. In the short term, it is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage, with potential over - valuation. However, in the long term, due to supply shortages and increased demand, it still has upward potential [10] - Aluminum: It has fallen from high levels. It is recommended to strengthen waiting and watching. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward pressure is large, especially considering the seasonal impact and new production capacity [12] - Nickel: It is expected to trade sideways. It is advised to wait and watch or short on rallies. The overall nickel market is in a state of excess, and although there are short - term price rebounds, the long - term excess situation is expected to continue [13][14] - Tin: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - Gold and Silver: They are expected to trade in a range. Supported by the US GDP growth and Fed's policies, and with the weakening of the US economic data, their medium - term price centers are expected to rise. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in new positions [15][16] - Lithium Carbonate: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of game. Although the downstream demand is strong, there are still uncertainties in supply, such as the situation of mines in Yichun [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to trade in a low - level range. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost - side disturbances, it may continue to trade in a wide low - level range [18] - Caustic Soda: It is in a low - level range and recommended to wait and watch temporarily. There are short - term delivery pressures, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of related commodity atmospheres, but the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - Styrene: It is expected to trade in a range. The current valuation is relatively high, and considering factors such as overseas supply and the Spring Festival effect, it is advised to be cautious and bearish in the short term [20] - Rubber: It is expected to trade in a range. During the high - yield period of Southeast Asian rubber tapping, the supply increases, but there are also factors supporting the price. The inventory is rising, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is affected by holidays [21] - Urea: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are both decreasing. The production is reduced due to maintenance, and the agricultural and industrial demand is also changing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [22] - Methanol: It is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port arrival factors [24] - Polyolefins: They are expected to trade weakly sideways. In December, the price was under pressure due to supply and demand. Although there is a supply reduction expectation in the first quarter of 2026, the demand improvement is limited, and the upward space is restricted [24][25] - Soda Ash: It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily. The supply is in excess, but with the reduction of supply and cost support, the downward space may be limited [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: They are expected to be slightly bullish. According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply and demand situation is adjusted, and with stable consumption and policy expectations, the price may maintain a slightly bullish trend [26][28] - Apples: They are expected to be slightly bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the sales in different producing areas have their own characteristics [28] - Red Dates: They are expected to rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market transactions in different regions have different performances [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: In the short term, the price fluctuates and is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and the cost is decreasing. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts, and the industry can hedge on rallies [30][31] - Eggs: The current basis is low and the valuation is high. In the short term, the price may rise seasonally, but it is not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the new - laying pressure is small, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts [33][34] - Corn: In the short term, the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, and it is not advisable to chase the high. In the long term, the demand will gradually release, and there is strong support at the bottom, but the supply - demand pattern in the 2025/2026 year is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [35][36] - Soybean Meal: It is expected to trade in a range. In the short term, the M2603 contract can be bought on dips, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The far - term 05 contract is affected by different factors and has different price trends [37][38] - Oils: The rebound of soybean and palm oil is limited, and it is not recommended to chase the rally. Rapeseed oil shows a weak trend, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [38][43]
2026年01月09日：期货市场交易指引-20260109
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-09 03:28