格林大华期货早盘提示：硅铁、锰硅-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term upward momentum for silicon and manganese silicon is difficult to sustain, and the market experienced a significant correction yesterday. The market is expected to fluctuate around the fundamentals in the short term. Silicon and manganese silicon are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, during the daytime session, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 5892.0, a 1.08% decline compared to the daytime opening. The main contract of silicon iron SF2603 closed at 5668, a 3.28% decline compared to the daytime opening [1]. 3.2 Important Information - At the beginning of 2026, the EU carbon tariff was officially implemented, significantly increasing the cost of steel exports to the EU. Indonesia will face the most significant increase in carbon costs, reaching 604.9 euros/ton at a certificate price of €80/tCO2. China's carbon cost is 161.14 euros/ton [1]. - The investigation of key coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia shows that no official documents or notices regarding production capacity reduction have been received, and market rumors have not had a substantial impact on coal production and sales [1]. - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 85.3%, a 5.7% week - on - week increase. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 4.734 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [1]. - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1859 million tons, a 0.4% week - on - week increase. The total inventory was 12.5392 million tons, a 1.77% week - on - week increase. The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 7.9862 million tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease. Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 13.5% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.8% week - on - week [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term upward push for silicon and manganese silicon is unsustainable, and the market corrected significantly yesterday. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has gradually started, significantly boosting market confidence. For manganese silicon, the price of manganese ore rose earlier than that of manganese silicon, providing strong cost support. On the demand side, the tendering of mainstream steel mills is proceeding slowly, and the announced tender prices are mostly concentrated around 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the price increase due to news - based disturbances was mostly reversed yesterday, it is expected that the market will fluctuate around the fundamentals in the short term [1].