20260109申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Night - time copper prices closed 0.98% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - time zinc prices closed 0.73% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention needs to be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 100,970 yuan/ton with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 12,721 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 143,225 tons with a daily change of - 2,850 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton with a basis of - 110 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,091 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 17.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 501,750 tons with a daily change of - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton with a basis of 145 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,131 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 105,500 tons with a daily change of - 275 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton with a basis of - 6,570 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 17,155 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 223.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 275,634 tons with a daily change of 20,088 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton with a basis of - 120 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 43.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 230,425 tons with a daily change of - 2,925 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton with a basis of 8,790 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 43,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 52.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 5,405 tons with a daily change of - 15 tons [2].