金融期货早评-20260109

Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on commodities but expects the upward pace to slow and volatility to increase. In the long - term, copper and aluminum in the non - ferrous sector may have potential for supplementary growth, while the black sector's short - term trading value depends on capital sentiment. Crude oil is in a downward trend, and lithium carbonate has significant risks. Precious metals are more suitable for allocation through ETFs [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - The domestic "moderately loose" monetary policy and "integrated effect" regulatory approach provide a warm liquidity expectation. Internationally, the US Treasury Secretary's call for the Fed to cut interest rates signals potential risks. The US employment report in December has hidden problems, and the market is divided on the Fed's policy direction [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - After the release of the US initial jobless claims data, the US dollar index rose, and the RMB exchange rate showed a certain trend. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.96 level [1][5]. Stock Index - The previous sharp rise driven by capital has weakened, and the large - cap and small - cap stock indices showed a differentiated trend. Short - term stock indices may face adjustment, but if trading enthusiasm remains and policy benefits are expected, they may strengthen after a phased consolidation [5]. Treasury Bonds - The short - term bond market may continue to recover if the A - share market continues to fluctuate, but the upside space is limited. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6]. Container Shipping (European Line) - The spot market shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short term [10]. Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The spot market of the lithium battery industry chain performs well, but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warns of irrational competition. Investors are advised to focus on structural long - term opportunities after corrections [12][13]. Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The regulatory policy will make the polysilicon futures price return to the fundamental supply - demand and marginal cost logic. The polysilicon market is in a supply - demand weak situation, and the industrial silicon price is expected to weaken [13][15]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US interest rate cut expectation will disrupt market sentiment. After a sharp decline, the copper price will repair. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range [16][18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term, with short - term correction pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and casting aluminum alloy is recommended to be bullish. It can be considered to go long on aluminum alloy and short on aluminum when the price difference is large [18][20]. Zinc - Zinc is in a continuous adjustment state, with short - term high - level volatility expected [20][21]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices have significantly corrected. The nickel price is at a high valuation, and the risk of Indonesia's quota release needs to be noted [21][22]. Tin - Tin has a technical correction. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [24]. Lead - Lead has fallen back to the shock range. It is expected to be volatile in the future [25][26]. Oilseeds and Fats Oilseeds - Oilseeds are in a bottom - shock state. The supply pressure from Brazil next year will suppress the rebound of the main contract, but the short - term supply gap may cause a phased rebound in the near - month contract [27][28]. Fats - The palm oil market sentiment has warmed up, and short - term fats are expected to have a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the MPOB data and the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [28][29]. Energy and Oil & Gas Asphalt - The conflict between the US and Venezuela may lead to a short - term supply disruption of heavy crude oil, and the asphalt cracking spread may be strong in the short term [30][31]. Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium are expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term. In the short term, attention should be paid to the index adjustment and non - farm data, and the risk of correction should be vigilant [32][33]. Gold & Silver - Precious metals are in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. They are in a high - level shock in the short term, and the long - term trend is bullish. Corrections can be regarded as opportunities to add long positions [35][37]. Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp spot price has generally fallen, and the market is neutral to bearish. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions [38][39]. LPG - Geopolitical factors provide support. The domestic supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the PDH maintenance situation [40][41]. PTA - PX - PTA shows high self - discipline, and the PX - TA structural contradiction has been significantly alleviated. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [42][44]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The demand negative feedback of ethylene glycol is intensifying. The polyester load is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high [45][46]. Methanol - Methanol is likely to start an upward - shock phase. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the restart of the MTO device [48][49]. PP - The short - term fundamentals of PP have improved, but the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival may limit the upside space [49][50]. PE - PE is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and inventory pressure [51][52]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a situation of weak domestic and strong overseas. Styrene has short - term positive news, but it is not recommended to chase high in the off - season [52][53]. Soda Ash - Soda ash has a high - level supply expectation in the long - term, and the price is restricted by the high inventory [54][55]. Glass - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired. The current high - level inventory needs to be digested [56]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a weak - reality state, with a wide - range shock expected and weak fundamental driving force [57]. Propylene - Propylene may have an upward price expectation due to cost factors, but attention should be paid to the upside risk before the fundamentals improve [58][59]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil - The steel price is expected to be in a shock trend, with the rebar 2605 contract price range at 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract at 3000 - 3400 [59]. Iron Ore - The iron ore fundamentals are neutral. Attention should be paid to the inventory release policy risk, and long positions are advised to be reduced on high [60][61]. Coking Coal & Coke - The coal - coke market may turn into a small - range shock if the macro sentiment cools down [62][63]. Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a shock - bullish trend. The increase in production and inventory may suppress the upward rhythm, but the downside space is limited [63][64]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price is expected to remain in a low - level narrow - range shock pattern without significant improvement in the supply - demand structure [65]. Cotton - The cotton market is affected by the expectation of tight supply - demand and potential policy changes. It is recommended to go long on corrections [66]. Sugar - The sugar price is in a shock and pressured state, and attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [66][67]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to be shock - bullish before the Spring Festival, but the risk of price correction after the festival should be vigilant [68][69]. Apples - The apple market has a problem of shortage of delivery products. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking situation [69][70]. Jujubes - Jujube prices are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term and pressured in the long - term [71][73]. Logs - Logs are recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, with a reference interval of 760 - 790 [74][75].