中辉有色观点-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding. ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Nickel: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment. ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals: Long - term and short - term factors are intertwined. The long - term logic for gold and silver is to go long, but short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as index rebalancing, margin hikes, and resource scarcity [1][2][4]. - Copper: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. In the long term, it is optimistic due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][6][7]. - Zinc: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises are advised to arrange short - hedging [1][9][10]. - Aluminum: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory [1][13][14]. - Nickel: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate: It is in a high - level adjustment. Long - positions can take profits gradually on rallies [1][20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market performance: Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels. SHFE gold decreased by 0.10% to 997.94, COMEX gold increased by 0.47% to 4488. SHFE silver decreased by 4.35% to 18450, COMEX silver decreased by 1.65% to 77 [2]. - Influencing factors: China's central bank continues to purchase gold. US employment data is mixed, and the service industry PMI is rising. The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index may cause selling pressure on gold and silver futures [3][4]. - Strategy recommendation: The short - term support for silver is at 18000, and for gold is at 990. In 2026, the support for precious metals remains strong, and the long - term logic of going long remains unchanged [4]. Copper - Market performance: Copper is oscillating at high levels. The closing price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 1.61% to 100230 yuan/ton [5]. - Industry logic: The global supply of copper concentrates is continuously tight. The production of some mines is affected. The domestic electrolytic copper output in December is high, but it is expected to decline in January. High copper prices suppress demand, but new demand in some fields is strong [6]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [98500, 102500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market performance: Zinc is falling back in oscillation. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 1.02% to 23800 yuan/ton [8]. - Industry logic: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined. The production of refined zinc in December decreased. The demand in some traditional fields is weak, but new - energy demand is growing [9]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises should arrange short - hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [23500, 24000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3100, 3200] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market performance: Aluminum prices are falling back under pressure. The closing price of LME aluminum decreased by 0.41% to 3071 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 2.61% to 23725 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry logic: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods is rising, and the downstream demand is weak. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range of SHFE aluminum is [23000 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - Market performance: Nickel prices are falling back. The closing price of LME nickel decreased by 2.69% to 17180 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract decreased by 7.64% to 136440 yuan/ton [15]. - Industry logic: Indonesia has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target in 2026. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, hitting a new high during the session, and the gains narrowed at the end [19]. - Industry logic: The weekly output has increased slightly. The downstream demand provides support, but the production of some downstream factories is decreasing [20]. - Strategy recommendation: It is operating at a high level in the range of [135000 - 150000] [21].