对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套PTA：高位震荡市MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - PX is in a unilateral high - level volatile market, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differentials. PTA is in a high - level volatile market. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] - For PX, cost - end oil prices are rising, but the PX industry has weakened, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent sector rotation on valuation and positive spread arbitrage positions. For PTA, it is in a high - level volatile market, with rising processing fees on the 05 contract, expected increase in operating rate, and continuous de - stocking. For MEG, the medium - term trend remains weak, and monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - PX: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7168, down 118 with a decline of 1.62%. The monthly spread PX5 - 9 was 88, down 26 from the previous day. The spot price was 886 US dollars/ton, down 13.67 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 363.88, up 7.92 from the previous day [2] - PTA: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5086, down 64 with a decline of 1.24%. The monthly spread PTA5 - 9 was 60, down 16 from the previous day. The spot price was 5072 yuan/ton, down 23 from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 361.63, up 6.66 from the previous day. The current PTA load is 78.2% [2][3] - MEG: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3846, down 33 with a decline of 0.85%. The monthly spread MEG5 - 9 was - 91, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price was 3698, down 15 from the previous day. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is at a high level of 73.9% [2][8] - PF: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 6490, down 54 with a decline of 0.83%. The monthly spread PF12 - 1 was - 54, up 16 from the previous day [2] - SC: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 416.2, down 0.1 with a decline of - 0.02%. The monthly spread SC11 - 12 was - 1.1, up 1.9 from the previous day [2] Market Dynamics - Crude Oil: Geopolitical situations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel remain uncertain, with short - term potential supply risks continuing, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.77 dollars/barrel to 57.76, a month - on - month increase of 3.16%. ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 2.03 dollars/barrel to 61.99, a month - on - month increase of 3.39%. China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract fell 6.8 to 418 yuan/barrel and rose 6.6 to 424.6 yuan/barrel in the night session [3] - PX: The price of naphtha at the end of the session was weakly maintained. Today, the PX price declined, with the current PX valuation at 886 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars from the previous day [3] - PTA: There were no significant changes in the PTA plants in the Chinese mainland this week, with individual plants increasing their loads, and the current PTA load is 78.2% [3] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is 1, PTA trend intensity is 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [7] Views and Suggestions - PX: Cost - end oil prices have recovered, and PX valuation has returned to a reasonable level. However, the PX industry has weakened, and attention should be paid to positive spread arbitrage positions and the impact of subsequent sector rotation on valuation [7] - PTA: It is in a high - level volatile market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is expected to increase. The overall operating rate will remain at around 78%, and PTA is still in the process of continuous de - stocking [8] - MEG: The medium - term trend remains weak, and monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. Although the performance of coal - chemical related products is strong, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still at a high level. The supply pressure will improve marginally in the medium term, but it is difficult to change the situation of ethylene glycol oversupply in the medium term [8]