反转前夕，曙光重现

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for nickel [1] Core Viewpoints - The report believes that Indonesia's determination to reduce nickel supply cannot be ignored, but the quantity may be slightly relaxed from the "250 million wet tons". Under the neutral assumption, the global nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to reach 3.712 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, while Indonesia's nickel ore production will be about 2.2 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%. The stainless steel sector is expected to contribute a stable year-on-year positive growth of about 4% in 2026, and the ternary demand is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year. The report suggests paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips unilaterally, and being cautious about chasing long positions. For internal and external arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out internal and external reverse arbitrage (positive arbitrage) when the import loss is relatively high (low). For inter - period arbitrage, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity under the deep C structure [2][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Mining End - Indonesia's RKAB approval quota has been guiding the price trend of the nickel market. In late 2025, it was revealed that the government planned to cut the nickel ore mining quota to about 250 million tons in 2026. However, implementing this quota may face difficulties, so it is assumed that the annual quota is 300 million tons for calculation. Under this assumption, the global nickel ore production in 2026 will reach 3.712 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and Indonesia's nickel ore production will be about 2.2 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% [15][31][32] - The supply supplement from the Philippines may be limited, and the average grade of its nickel ore is decreasing. The resumption of production of Australian nickel mines has harsh conditions, and the cost before shutdown has increased [21][26] 2. Smelting End 2.1 Nickel Iron & Intermediate Products - In the absence of raw material restrictions, the low - cost production capacity (HPAL + oxygen - enriched side - blowing) in the smelting end is expected to increase by 120,000 and 50,000 metal tons respectively in 2026, and gradually replace the high - cost RKEF conversion to ferronickel. However, under the assumption of a 300 - million - ton RKAB, the RKEF conversion may not be completed in 2026. It is estimated that the output of RKEF conversion to ferronickel will decrease by 50,000 metal tons year - on - year to 244,000 metal tons, while HPAL and OESBF will increase by 20,000 and 7,000 metal tons respectively [3] - The cost of Indonesian NPI integration is about $10,650 per metal ton for the full cost and about $9,950 per metal ton for the cash cost. In 2026, the output of Indonesian NPI is expected to increase by 60,000 metal tons year - on - year to 1.755 million metal tons [34][40] - In 2025, the output of RKEF conversion to ferronickel decreased significantly year - on - year, while the oxygen - enriched side - blowing production of ferronickel increased significantly. In 2026, the output of oxygen - enriched side - blowing ferronickel is expected to increase to 114,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 metal tons, and the output of RKEF conversion to ferronickel is expected to decrease to about 130,000 metal tons [45][47] - The demand for MHP is strong, and its price performance is excellent. In 2026, the output of Indonesian MHP is expected to increase by 1.2 million metal tons year - on - year to 5.8 million metal tons [52][59] 2.2 Primary Nickel - In 2025, China's refined nickel production increased significantly year - on - year, and the output of nickel sulfate increased slightly. In 2026, if there is no supply - side contraction, the inventory pressure of refined nickel will be similar to that in 2025 [63] 3. Demand End 3.1 Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is restricted by the real estate market, and the growth rate of traditional demand is limited. However, the sales of household appliances are driven by the trade - in policy, and the shipbuilding and machinery manufacturing industries also show good growth, supporting the consumption of stainless steel in the hot - rolled field. In 2026, the nickel consumption of China's stainless steel is expected to increase by 4% year - on - year to about 1.562 million metal tons, and the global nickel consumption is expected to be about 2.388 million metal tons [79][98] 3.2 New Energy - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate continued to rise. In 2026, affected by the reduction of purchase tax incentives, the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market may decline, but there is still policy support. It is estimated that the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China will increase by 16% year - on - year to 19.206 million vehicles. The new energy commercial vehicle is expected to increase by 44% year - on - year to 1.3 million vehicles [101][102][108] - In 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased significantly year - on - year. In 2026, with the support of subsidy policies, the high - growth trend is expected to continue, with an estimated year - on - year increase of 26.6% to 4.942 million vehicles. In the United States, affected by policy changes, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to decline in 2026 [112][113][115] - In 2025, China's ternary precursor production increased slightly year - on - year, and the capacity utilization rate was less than 50%. In 2026, the demand for ternary materials is expected to increase by about 8% year - on - year to 405,000 metal tons. In the long term, technologies such as quaternary batteries and solid - state batteries may bring new growth potential to the demand for nickel [123][131][135] 4. Investment Suggestions 4.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Market Outlook - Under the assumption that RKAB does not significantly limit, the supply surplus in 2026 will be basically the same as that in 2025, about 380,000 - 390,000 metal tons, and the accumulation of visible inventory may be about 200,000 metal tons. If RKAB gives about 300 million tons, the supply surplus will be about 50,000 - 60,000 metal tons, and the visible inventory may show a downward trend [141] 4.2 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips unilaterally, and be cautious about chasing long positions. The pyrometallurgical cost can be used as the cost support below the market. If the Indonesian quota is gradually released and appears loose in the middle of the year, the price range may move down, and the cost of integrated hydrometallurgy can be used as the anchor. If the RKAB quota is 300 million tons, the core price range is 125,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton; if there is no significant limit, the core price range will move down to 100,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [144]