中辉能化观点-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: PTA, methanol [29][35] - Bearish with Rebound: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, LNG, asphalt, glass [1][13][18][44][48][53] - Bearish with Consolidation: PVC, soda ash [26][57] - Oscillating: Urea [40] - Cautiously Bearish: Ethylene glycol [32] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Short - term price rebounds due to Middle East geopolitical disturbances, but medium - to long - term prices are pressured by supply surplus [1][10] - LPG: The price rebounds due to cost - side support, but in the long run, it is pressured by the oversupply of upstream crude oil [13][17] - L: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound, but there is still pressure to destock [18][21] - PP: The high - level maintenance in the short term eases the supply pressure, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22][25] - PVC: The upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulates rapidly, and there is a risk of short - term correction [26][28] - PTA: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [29][31] - Ethylene Glycol: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to short on rebounds [32][34] - Methanol: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the rebound height may be limited [35][37] - Urea: It oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to the changes in port collection and exports [40][41] - LNG: The supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under downward pressure [44][47] - Asphalt: Attention should be paid to the import situation of raw materials, and the price still has room to compress [48][52] - Glass: The short - term cold repair of the device supports the price, but there is a risk of emotional correction [53][56] - Soda Ash: The demand weakens, and the rebound is difficult to be sustainable [57][60] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 3.16%, Brent up 3.39%, and SC down 1.60% [9] - Basic Logic: Short - term price is affected by geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the inventory is accelerating to accumulate [10] - Fundamentals: Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, and Indian fuel consumption has reached a record high. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [11] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [415 - 435] [12] 3.2 LPG - Market Review: On January 8, the PG main contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [15] - Basic Logic: Saudi Arabia raised the CP contract price, which supported the gas price in the short term. The medium - to long - term price is anchored to the oil price and is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the downstream demand has resilience [16] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long run, the price has room to compress. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [17] 3.3 L - Futures and Spot Market: The L05 basis is - 108 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is - 37 yuan/ton [20] - Basic Logic: The basis has strengthened, and the device maintenance has increased. The upstream and mid - stream have started to accumulate inventory. The parking ratio has risen to 13%, and the weighted gross profit has been compressed [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of L [6500 - 6750] [21] 3.4 PP - Futures and Spot Market: The PP05 basis is - 145 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is - 52 yuan/ton [24] - Basic Logic: The total commercial inventory has accumulated, and the high - level maintenance will be maintained in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio has risen to 22% [25] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6550] [25] 3.5 PVC - Futures and Spot Market: The V05 basis is - 255 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is - 137 yuan/ton [27] - Basic Logic: The upstream and mid - stream inventory has accumulated rapidly. The domestic start - up has increased to 80%, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support has strengthened [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4900] [28] 3.6 PTA - Futures and Spot Market: As of December 31, TA05 closed at 5110 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 13 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread is 100 yuan/ton [30] - Basic Logic: The valuation has improved, and the processing fee and profit have increased. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy TA05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5030 - 5110] [31] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - Futures and Spot Market: The EG05 basis is - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread is - 93 yuan/ton [32] - Basic Logic: The main contract closing price is at a low valuation. The domestic start - up load has increased, and the overseas device maintenance has increased. The downstream demand is good but expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [33] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [34] 3.8 Methanol - Futures and Spot Market: The main contract has reduced positions and risen, and the East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread have strengthened [37] - Basic Logic: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device start - up loads have increased. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand has weakened slightly [37] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy methanol 05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2210 - 2250] [39] 3.9 Urea - Futures and Spot Market: The urea main contract closed at 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis is - 39 yuan/ton [42] - Basic Logic: The Shandong small - particle urea spot price has stabilized. The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January, and the demand has weakened recently. The social inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level [41] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05 on dips. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [43] 3.10 LNG - Market Review: On January 7, the NG main contract closed at 3.525 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 5.22% [46] - Basic Logic: The short - term rebound is due to an accident in a US energy company. The supply is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure [47] - Strategy Recommendation: In winter, the demand has support, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.263 - 3.695] [47] 3.11 Asphalt - Market Review: On January 8, the BU main contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [49] - Basic Logic: The South American geopolitics has affected the raw material supply. The production has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The inventory has increased [51] - Strategy Recommendation: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] 3.12 Glass - Futures and Spot Market: The FG05 basis is - 143 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread is - 86 yuan/ton [55] - Basic Logic: The factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times, and the daily melting volume has continued to decline. The short - term cold repair of the device supports the price, but there is a risk of emotional correction [56] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [56] 3.13 Soda Ash - Futures and Spot Market: The SA05 basis is - 34 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread is - 66 yuan/ton [59] - Basic Logic: The factory inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened. The restart of the device has increased, and the long - term supply is loose [60] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of SA [1180 - 1230] [60]