焦煤，追高需谨慎

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of coking coal have not improved substantially, with supply increasing steadily and demand remaining weak. The upside potential of futures prices may be limited, and short - term chasing of high prices requires caution [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Performance - At the beginning of the new year, coking coal futures prices rose strongly, with the main contract hitting the daily limit on Wednesday and closing up 3% at Thursday's mid - session. Spot prices in the main production areas only increased slightly, but the transaction volume improved and the auction failure rate decreased significantly. The rise in futures prices was mainly due to the warming sentiment in the commodity market [2]. Supply Situation - Domestically, the supply of coking coal is increasing steadily. From January 1st to 5th, 49 coal mines resumed production, involving a production capacity of 75.05 million tons, and the January output is expected to increase compared to December last year, with the peak production expected in March. As of the week of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.3%, and the daily average output of raw coal was 1.899 million tons, with week - on - week increases of 5.7% and 127,000 tons respectively. In December last year, Mongolian coal imports were high, with the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port reaching 191,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year increase of 130%. After the New Year's Day holiday, the customs clearance volume decreased but remained at a relatively high level [3]. Demand Situation - The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased by 8,500 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, showing a slight recovery. However, the incremental space for raw material demand is questionable. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, with the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills still large, and the profit - making proportion of 247 steel mills being 38.10%. The downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, with the inventory of some varieties significantly higher than in previous years, which restricts the steel mills' motivation to increase production. Therefore, the recovery space for pig iron output in the off - season is limited, and coking coal demand is unlikely to improve. Attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment rhythm and intensity of downstream steel mills and coking plants [5].