中辉农产品观点-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Market Outlook: Different futures varieties have diverse short - term trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to be range - bound, rapeseed meal may decline in the short - term, palm oil will be in a short - term consolidation phase, soybean oil will experience short - term adjustments, rapeseed oil will be weak in the short - term, cotton will have a short - term correction, red dates may have a short - term rebound, and live pigs may also have a short - term rebound [1]. - Key Influencing Factors: Multiple factors affect the market, including import and export data, production and inventory changes, international policies, seasonal factors, and trade relations [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Price Performance: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,782 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3,207.71 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [1][2]. - Inventory Situation: As of January 2, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 823.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the previous week; 125 oil mills had a soybean inventory of 710.25 million tons, an increase of 55.81 million tons from the previous week, and a soybean meal inventory of 117.02 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons from the previous week [3]. - Market Outlook: Before the release of the January USDA report, soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The report may lower US soybean export data, leading to an expected increase in ending stocks, which could put downward pressure on US soybeans [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Performance: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2,583.16 yuan/ton, up 1.87% [1][4]. - Inventory Situation: As of January 2, the coastal area's main oil mills had a rapeseed inventory of 0 million tons, a rapeseed meal inventory of 0 million tons, and an unexecuted contract of 0 million tons, all remaining unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: Rapeseed meal showed some resistance to decline compared to soybean meal, but the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister dampened market sentiment, causing a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the January USDA report, Australian seed crushing and import policies, and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade. If the China - Canada negotiations fail, there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [1][6]. Palm Oil - Price Performance: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous day; the national average price was 8,648 yuan/ton, up 0.87% [1][7]. - Inventory and Production: As of January 2, 2026, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 73.38 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons from the previous week. In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased, and in January 2026, the production decreased significantly, while the export volume increased [8]. - Market Outlook: Affected by the negative factors in the soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets, palm oil rose and then fell. It is expected to consolidate in the next two days. Due to the arrival of the production - reduction season and the inventory - building demand for India's Ramadan Festival, there may be opportunities to go long when the price stabilizes at a low level [1][8]. Cotton - Price Performance: The main contract CF2605 closed at 14,740 yuan/ton, down 1.96% from the previous day; the spot price CCIndex (3218B) was 15,992 yuan/ton, up 1.32% [1][9]. - Supply and Demand: Internationally, the US new cotton inspection progress is about 78%, India's MSP acquisition is accelerating, and Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, with the 2026 new cotton planting progress at 31.2%. Domestically, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress is fast, and downstream demand is still resilient, but spinning mill profits are deteriorating, and external supply inflows may suppress the market [10][11][12]. - Market Outlook: The ICE market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. In the short - term, there is a need for adjustment in the domestic market. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and opportunities to go long on dips [1][12]. Red Dates - Price Performance: The main contract CJ2605 closed at 9,075 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day; the spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [1][13]. - Supply and Demand: The acquisition in the production areas is over, market supply has increased, and it is the winter consumption season. However, high inventory is still a major pressure on price increases [14]. - Market Outlook: The spot price's tail - end rally has ended. The market may be volatile. In general, a bearish attitude is recommended, but short - term rebound opportunities should be noted [1][14]. Live Pigs - Price Performance: The main contract LH2603 closed at 11,720 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 12,540 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [1][15]. - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the January slaughter plan of sample enterprises has decreased, but the supply pressure will still be high at the end of January and in February. The demand has decreased due to the end of the stock - building season, and the next demand peak will be before the Spring Festival [16][17]. - Market Outlook: In mid - to early January, the market is expected to be weak in both supply and demand. The spot price may rebound due to second - fattening, but the overall outlook for the post - festival period is not optimistic. For different contracts, different strategies are recommended, such as focusing on the LH2603 contract's spot performance, being bearish on the LH2605 contract, and remaining on the sidelines for the LH2609 and LH2611 contracts [1][15][17].