工业硅、多晶硅日报（2026年1月9日）-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 8th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,535 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 4.53%, and the open interest increasing by 15,797 lots to 261,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product was stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 315 yuan/ton. Polysilicon contracts hit the daily limit down, with the main contract 2605 closing at 53,610 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 9% reaching the limit, and the open interest decreasing by 9,751 lots to 58,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled silicon material for polysilicon from Baichuan rose to 55,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 53,500 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,890 yuan/ton to the main contract [2]. - The main production area of industrial silicon continued to shift northward. Although there were production cuts due to environmental protection, it was difficult to offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon had limited production cuts, the silicone industry had collective production cuts, and the aluminum alloy industry had environmental - related production cuts. Industrial silicon had cost support but no continuous driving force, so a high - level short - selling strategy should be maintained. The core logic of polysilicon trading was about the establishment of a production capacity platform and supply - side production control through state reserves, but the reserve action had not been implemented, causing market concerns. In addition, the exchange had increased margin requirements several times, implemented risk - control position limits, and the pressure of low warehouse receipts had been greatly relieved, causing the over - speculative sentiment to dissipate. After the market re - discussed the issue of industrial chain profit distribution and downstream production cuts, the upside premium space for polysilicon was limited. Given the large market fluctuations, it was advisable to hold a light position and wait and see [2]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Research Views - On the 8th, industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different market trends. Industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, and polysilicon contracts hit the daily limit down. The production areas of industrial silicon and polysilicon faced production cuts, and the market had concerns about polysilicon's state reserve plan. It was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 445 yuan/ton to 8,535 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 8,930 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price was stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount of 130 yuan/ton to a premium of 315 yuan/ton. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 7,750 tons to 448,400 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 4,690 yuan/ton to 53,610 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 3,450 yuan/ton to 54,550 yuan/ton. The price of N - type recycled silicon material increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 55,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable product price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 55,500 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount of 4,800 yuan/ton to a premium of 1,890 yuan/ton. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 26,000 tons to 308,000 tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The price of dimethyldichlorosilane (DMC) in the East China market remained stable, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts display the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. Inventory - Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [21][22][24]. Cost and Profit - Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy [26][28][31]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won many awards [34]. - Wang Heng is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research for clients [34]. - Zhu Xi is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She has won industry awards and focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [35].