农产品日报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The corn market shows a bullish trend with the 2603 contract leading the rally. Spot market auctions increase supply, but the overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the price pressure around 2270 [2]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans closed lower on Thursday. Domestic bean meal prices are boosted by higher import costs. Brazilian soybean exports in January are expected to reach 240,000 tons, ensuring future supply. Bean meal prices will fluctuate in a limited range, and a double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Fats and Oils: BMD palm oil prices rose, supported by Indonesia's plan to raise export tariffs but limited by inventory expectations. Domestic fats and oils prices also increased. The market should closely monitor the USDA supply - demand report on January 13th and the visit of the Canadian President in mid - January. An option - selling strategy is suggested [2]. - Eggs: The egg futures market is volatile. The spot price is relatively stable, and the market is currently at the bottom of the cycle. Attention should be paid to whether the main contract can break through the long - term moving average [2][3]. - Pigs: The pig futures market rebounded and then declined. The spot price shows regional differences, with northern prices falling and southern prices rising. The production capacity is likely to decline in the long - term, but the short - term market will oscillate. A dynamic stop - profit strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the technical performance of the long - term moving average of the main contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Indonesia has set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, with an export tax of $74 per ton and an additional 10% special export tax [4]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is reduced by 1% to 46 million tons, with an estimated range of 44.8 - 47.2 million tons [4]. - In late December 2025, among 50 important production materials, 18 saw price increases, 28 decreased, and 4 remained unchanged. The price of live pigs (ternary) increased by 1.7% month - on - month [4]. - In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.07% month - on - month, with a 7.39% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.13% decrease in oil extraction rate [4]. - OPEC+ agreed to maintain stable oil production in Q1 2026. The organization will hold its next meeting on February 1st [5]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybean 5 - 9, bean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, egg 5 - 9, and pig 5 - 9 [6][7][8][10][13]. - Contract Basis: The report shows the contract basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, bean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig [14][16][18][20][26].