黑色商品日报（2026年1月9日）-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the black commodity market are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The black commodity market is currently in a state of oscillation, with different varieties showing different supply - demand situations and price trends. The cost factors and supply - demand relationships of each variety jointly affect their short - term price movements [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils) - Rebar: The rebar futures price slightly declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The supply increased, inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the apparent demand significantly declined. However, cost factors provided support, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price of the main contract i2605 decreased to 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The global shipping volume decreased, while the iron - making water output increased, and the port and steel mill inventories accumulated. The price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of long and short factors [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.23%. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the market sentiment improved. The demand was resilient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The coke futures price declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 1765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The spot price increased. The production of coke enterprises was relatively stable, and the demand from steel mills increased, but the consumption in the off - season limited the increase in iron - making water output. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5892 yuan/ton, down 1.77%. The market price was between 5650 - 5850 yuan/ton. The cost provided support, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5668 yuan/ton, down 3.18%. The market price was about 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease, the demand was supported during the steel procurement period, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various varieties showed different spread changes. For example, the 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 45.0, up 3.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21.0, down 2.5 [4] - Basis: The basis of each variety also changed. For instance, the 05 contract basis of rebar was 152.0, up 19.0; the 05 contract basis of iron ore was 60.0, up 2.9 [4] - Profit and Cross - variety Spreads: The profit of rebar showed different trends, such as the rebar futures profit being - 98.9, up 9.8. The cross - variety spreads, like the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, were also provided [4] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: Charts showed the historical price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][10][12] - Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various varieties [16][18][21] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spread trends between different contracts of each variety [25][31][32] - Cross - variety Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spread trends between different varieties, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and the rebar to iron ore ratio [42][44][45] - Rebar Profit: Charts presented the historical profit trends of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][49][50] Black Research Team Members - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, etc., each with different professional backgrounds and expertise [52][53] Company Information - The company is located at No. 6, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [54]