有色商品日报-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined. The US initial jobless claims were 208,000, slightly higher than the previous value but still below market expectations, indicating a stable labor - market. The Fed's report shows that consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.4%. There is a large divergence among Fed officials, making the interest - rate cut expectation at the end - of - month Fed meeting unclear. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,150 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,255 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 12,211 tons. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market is in the inventory accumulation stage. An orderly adjustment is beneficial for future market trends [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. Ore reserves are high, and the short - term premium purchasing sentiment of alumina plants is low. The possibility of large - scale alumina plant overhauls in the new quarter is not high. The news of the NDRC's encouragement of industrial restructuring has reduced the downward pressure on the market, and the far - month contracts are expected to maintain a premium. After a significant rebound, the confidence of long - positions has weakened, and there is new resistance to further price increases. Attention should be paid to the US interest - rate cut rhythm and downstream restocking rhythm [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 3.34% and Shanghai nickel fell 4.48%. LME and SHFE inventories increased. Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota to support prices, but the actual quota implementation needs time. As prices rise rapidly, the production of primary nickel has increased by 18.5% month - on - month, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment and look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The macro - situation affects copper prices. The labor - market data and inflation expectations influence the Fed's interest - rate decision. The inventory changes in different markets and the slowdown in terminal demand due to high prices are key factors. An orderly adjustment is seen as positive for future trends [1]. - Aluminum: The price of various aluminum products trended weakly overnight. The supply - side situation of alumina, including ore reserves, overhaul plans, and new - quarter agreements, affects the market. The news of industrial restructuring has an impact on market sentiment, and there are challenges to price increases [1][2]. - Nickel: The price decline is accompanied by inventory increases. Indonesia's policy to adjust the nickel quota is a significant factor. The increase in primary nickel production may lead to hedging pressure, and the market should focus on sentiment and cost - based buying opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - copper, waste - copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory in LME decreased, while in SHFE and Comex it increased. The social inventory increased slightly, and the import loss widened [1][3]. - Lead: The average price of lead and related products decreased. The inventory in SHFE increased, and the import profit decreased [3]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum products such as in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory in LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased. The import loss widened [4]. - Nickel: The price of nickel products decreased, and the inventory in LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased. The import profit situation changed significantly [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased by 1.1%. The inventory in SHFE increased, while the social inventory decreased slightly. The import loss decreased [6]. - Tin: The main settlement price decreased by 0.9%. The inventory in SHFE decreased, and the import loss increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Spot Premium: There are charts showing the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which help to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [13][12] - 3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2026, which are useful for understanding the term - structure of the futures market [14][18] - 3.3.3 LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, reflecting the supply situation in the international market [21][26] - 3.3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, indicating the supply situation in the domestic futures market [27][32] - 3.3.5 Social Inventory: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026, which can help analyze the overall market supply and demand [33][38] - 3.3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, copper roughing processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026, which are important for evaluating the profitability of the smelting industry [39][44] 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won many industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have also won industry - recognized honors and provide high - quality research services [46][47]