Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, commodities, and agricultural products. It offers short - and medium - term outlooks and investment strategies for each product based on market data, macro - economic conditions, and industry - specific factors [5][7][10]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds (Treasury Bonds) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.37%, 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - Macro - economic Situation: Current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. - Outlook and Strategy: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][6]. Stocks (Stock Index Futures) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [7]. - Industry News: There are issues of blind construction and irrational competition in the power and energy storage battery industry, which need to be regulated [7]. - Macro - economic Situation: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. Market sentiment has improved, and incremental funds are entering the market [8]. - Outlook and Strategy: The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can consider taking long positions at appropriate times [8][9]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined, with gold falling by 0.10% and silver by 4.35% [10]. - Industry News: US December lay - off data and Eurozone economic sentiment index were released [10]. - Macro - economic Situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, recent sharp price increases have led to a significant rise in speculative sentiment [10]. - Outlook and Strategy: Market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. Commodities Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance [12]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn and approaching off - season. Supply pressure has eased as production is at a low level, and inventory is slightly higher than last year but being consumed quickly [12]. - Outlook and Strategy: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction [14]. - Supply - Demand Situation: National hot - metal production has declined in the past two months but may recover. Imports increased in the first 11 months of 2025, and domestic production is lower than in 2024. Port inventory is at a five - year high [14]. - Outlook and Strategy: The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen. Futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose and then fell [16]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Coking coal production has increased as mines resume production, but demand from coke enterprises is weak. Coke prices have been lowered for the fourth time, and demand from steel mills is weak due to low profits [17]. - Outlook and Strategy: The rebound shows signs of fatigue. Investors can consider long positions at low levels with proper position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined, with manganese - silicon falling by 1.77% and silicon - iron by 3.18% [19]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Manganese ore supply is recovering, and port inventory is low. Cost is fluctuating within a narrow range. Production of rebar by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and ferroalloy production is at a low level in the past five years. Supply is still abundant, and inventory is increasing [19]. - Outlook and Strategy: Overall oversupply persists. Investors can consider exiting long positions on consecutive rallies and taking long positions at low levels [20]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the US plan to sell Venezuelan oil [21]. - Industry News: There are multiple news related to the US's actions against Venezuela's oil industry [21]. - Outlook and Strategy: The price is under pressure. Investors are advised to wait and see [21][22]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [23]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, which is positive for prices. However, the decline in crude oil prices may drag down fuel oil prices [23][25]. - Outlook and Strategy: Investors are advised to wait and see [26]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou saw low - price replenishment, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao rose [27]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Production enterprises are reducing inventory, and market prices have stopped falling and rebounded, which is beneficial for price stability [27]. - Outlook and Strategy: Investors can consider long positions [28]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose by 1.83% [29]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The price increase was supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates. However, downstream demand is weak, and inventory turnover days have increased [29]. - Outlook and Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate strongly [29][31]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined slightly [32]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Domestic supply has stopped, but overseas pressure remains. Demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. The inclusion of 20 - rubber substitutes in physical delivery has expanded the supply [32]. - Outlook and Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell by 0.99% [34]. - Supply - Demand Situation: It is currently the off - season for PVC. Supply pressure is increasing as production has increased in December and maintenance losses have decreased. Demand is weak, and corporate profits are compressed [34]. - Outlook and Strategy: The market may oscillate strongly in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium term. However, demand uncertainty should be noted [34][35]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose by 0.45% [36]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply has increased slightly, and demand from the agricultural sector is expected to grow as the top - dressing season approaches. Industrial demand is weak. Indian urea tender prices have increased, boosting market sentiment. Corporate inventory has decreased [36]. - Outlook and Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, PX futures declined by 1.94% [38]. - Supply - Demand Situation: PX operating rate is stable, and some plants have restart or maintenance plans. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable [38]. - Macro - economic Situation: Geopolitical uncertainties may lead to adjustments in crude oil prices [38]. - Outlook and Strategy: PX may oscillate in the short term. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38][39]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell by 1.05% [40]. - Supply - Demand Situation: PTA operating rate has increased slightly, and polyester demand is stable. PTA exports have increased significantly in November. Processing fees have adjusted to a neutral level [40]. - Macro - economic Situation: Crude oil prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [40]. - Outlook and Strategy: PTA may oscillate in the short term. Investors should operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell by 0.21% [41]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The operating rate has increased, and port inventory is under pressure. The planned arrival of goods at the port has increased. Downstream demand support has weakened slightly [41][42]. - Outlook and Strategy: Investors are advised to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell by 0.86% [43]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is at a relatively high level, and terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory. Short - fiber inventory is low, providing some support. The market is mainly driven by cost [43]. - Outlook and Strategy: Short - fiber may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle - Chip - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell by 0.59% [44]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The operating rate has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Exports have increased. The market is mainly driven by cost [44][45]. - Macro - economic Situation: Raw material prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [45]. - Outlook and Strategy: Bottle - chip may oscillate following cost. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [45]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, carbonate lithium futures rose by 2.46% [46]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Production is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving. Social inventory is decreasing [46]. - Outlook and Strategy: The price is supported in the short term, but investors should operate cautiously as it may be affected by news [46]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, copper futures fell by 1.61% [47]. - Industry News: There are labor disputes at a Chilean copper mine and delays in an Ecuadorian copper mine project [48]. - Macro - economic Situation: US economic data is mixed, and there are geopolitical risks. China has introduced policies for equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement [48]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The copper concentrate processing fee for the first quarter of next year has declined, and COMEX copper inventory is increasing. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and social inventory is rising [48]. - Outlook and Strategy: Copper prices are at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to weak demand and high - price suppression [48][49]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, aluminum and alumina futures declined, with aluminum falling by 1.17% and alumina by 2.95% [50]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The price of imported ore from Guinea has decreased, and the supply of alumina is in excess. Aluminum production is stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased. Aluminum processing enterprise operating rates have declined [50]. - Industry News: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to upgrade the alumina industry [50]. - Outlook and Strategy: Alumina prices may rebound, but there is a risk of a decline. Aluminum prices are at a high level, but the upward space is limited [50][51]. Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell by 1.02% [52]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen below the smelting cost, and refined zinc production is likely to decrease. Consumption is in the off - season, but there is still rigid demand. Overseas supply has improved [52]. - Outlook and Strategy: Zinc prices have risen, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to the approaching off - season and high - price suppression [52][53]. Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell by 1.31% [54]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is weak due to maintenance and environmental regulations. Consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is low [54]. - Outlook and Strategy: Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range [54][55]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell by 1.53% [56]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts, slow复产 of mines in Wa State, and strict crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. Demand has some resilience supported by emerging industries. Inventory is decreasing [56]. - Outlook and Strategy: Tin prices are supported, but there may be short - term corrections. Investors should control risks [56][57]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell by 4.48% [58]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Indonesia has adjusted its nickel ore quota and may tax associated resources. Nickel production costs are expected to rise. Supply is affected by the crackdown on illegal mines and the rainy season in the Philippines. Demand is weak as stainless steel is in the off - season and downstream consumption is sluggish. Inventory is relatively high [58]. - Outlook and Strategy: First - grade nickel is in excess. Investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [58]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell by 0.32%, and soybean oil futures rose by 0.20% [59]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and US soybean export progress is slow. Oil mill soybean crushing volume has decreased, and inventory pressure is still high. Soybean meal demand is growing moderately, and soybean oil demand has slightly improved [59][60]. - Outlook and Strategy: Investors can consider long positions in soybean meal at low - cost support levels and long positions in soybean oil call options at low levels [60]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil has risen for two consecutive months [61]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax, which supports prices, but inventory is expected to increase. Chinese palm oil imports have increased significantly in November, and inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years [61]. - Outlook and Strategy: Investors can consider long positions after pull - backs [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed prices have continued to rise [63]. - Supply - Demand Situation: There are discussions about Canadian farmers' planting plans. Chinese rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have shown different trends in November. Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years [63]. - Industry News: There will be trade negotiations between the US and Canada, and the Canadian Prime Minister will visit China [63]. - Outlook and Strategy: Investors can consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil if Canadian rapeseed imports increase [63][64]. Cotton - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell significantly due to profit - taking [65]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, and the US production forecast has also increased. Global production is expected to decrease slightly. Cotton exports in November showed mixed results. Domestic cotton acquisition is almost complete, and future planting area is expected to decrease [65][66]. - Outlook and Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [67][68]. Sugar - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded, and overseas raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly [69]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, domestic sugar production in Guangxi decreased in December. Indian sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and there will be a large inventory surplus. Chinese sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year but increased in the first 11 months [69][70]. - Outlook and Strategy: The upward space for sugar prices may be limited after the significant rebound [71][72]. Apple - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated [73]. - **Supply - Demand Situation
西南期货早间评论-20260109
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2026-01-09 05:41