——《大国博弈》系列第九十四篇：美关税裁决的三个猜想

Core Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to soon rule on the legality of Trump's tariff package, with market expectations indicating a 76% probability of a ruling against Trump [2][4][6] - If the tariffs are ruled illegal, the Trump administration may respond in two phases: short-term implementation of tariffs up to 15% under the Trade Act of 1974, and long-term initiation of Section 301/232 investigations to maintain trade negotiation outcomes [2][8][9] Group 1: Supreme Court Predictions - The Supreme Court is likely to rule that Trump's tariffs are illegal, as indicated by previous losses in lower courts and the skepticism expressed by justices during oral arguments [4][5][6] - The court's decision date is anticipated to be January 9, 2026, which could lead to significant market volatility depending on the ruling [4][6] Group 2: Government Response to Potential Ruling - Should the tariffs be deemed illegal, the Trump administration is expected to accept the ruling and utilize alternative legal frameworks to impose tariffs, specifically Sections 301, 232, and 122 of the Trade Act [7][8][9] - The administration's strategy will involve a two-step approach: immediate tariffs under Section 122 and subsequent investigations under Sections 301 and 232 to ensure continuity in trade policy [8][9] Group 3: Market Reactions to Tariff Ruling - The impact on the U.S. stock market is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, benefiting tariff-sensitive sectors such as manufacturing and retail, while small-cap stocks may also see gains [3][12][13] - The bond market may experience limited short-term pressure due to the Treasury's ample cash reserves, but long-term uncertainties regarding tariff revenues could increase debt deficit pressures [3][12][14] - Gold prices may initially decline due to reduced tariff policy uncertainty, but potential declines in tariff revenue could negatively impact the dollar's credibility, thus supporting gold prices [3][12][14]