商业航天系列专题之卫星篇（1）：梳理中国星座计划-20260109

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with significant growth potential driven by government policies and market demand. The market size in China is expected to reach 8 trillion RMB by 2030 [5][16] - The competition for satellite spectrum and orbital resources is intensifying globally, with a focus on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. The current utilization rate of LEO resources is approximately 18% [6][28] - China is advancing several national satellite constellation projects, including the "GW Constellation," "Qianfan Constellation," and "Honghu-3," aiming to deploy tens of thousands of satellites over the next decade [7][30][44] Summary by Sections 1. National Strategy and Commercial Aerospace Development - Commercial aerospace is becoming an integral part of the aerospace industry, characterized by market-driven operations and a focus on profitability. It encompasses satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and satellite applications [13][14] - The global commercial aerospace market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7%, with China's market expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2015 to 2024 [16][19] 2. Global Competition for Low Earth Orbit Resources - The global distribution of satellite spectrum and orbital resources is managed by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) under a "first-come, first-served" principle, with strict deployment timelines [6][27] - As of May 2025, there are approximately 10,824 satellites in LEO, with a theoretical capacity of 60,000 satellites [28] 3. Major Satellite Constellation Projects in China - The "GW Constellation" aims to deploy 12,992 satellites, while the "Qianfan Constellation" plans to launch 15,000 satellites, and "Honghu-3" intends to deploy 10,000 satellites [30][44] - The "GW Constellation" is led by China Satellite Network Group and is designed to create a 6G satellite internet system [32] - The "Qianfan Constellation" is a project initiated by Shanghai's local government and aims to provide global satellite broadband services [33][38] - The "Honghu-3" project is spearheaded by Beijing Blue Arrow Hongqing Technology and focuses on building a high-speed satellite broadband network [44][45]