2026年财政、货币政策配合展望及对债市影响

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, fiscal policy may maintain the general deficit ratio basically stable compared to 2025, and monetary policy has room for two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. The coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have a significant impact on interest rates. The bond market in 2026 is expected to remain range - bound with band trading opportunities, especially when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches or reaches 1.9% [3][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fiscal, Monetary Policy Coordination and the Bond Market Relationship - Fiscal and monetary policy coordination is crucial for bond market interest rates. An expansionary fiscal policy shifts the IS curve to the right, putting upward pressure on interest rates, while an expansionary monetary policy shifts the LM curve downward, exerting downward pressure on interest rates. When both policies are implemented simultaneously, the net impact on interest rates depends on which policy is more active [11]. 2. Overall Ideas for Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2026 - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference called for a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The central bank aims to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, and keep the social comprehensive financing cost at a low level. The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on improving the efficiency of fiscal funds [16][17][18]. 3. Review of China's Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2025 - In 2025, China's fiscal policy remained strong, with the ratio of fiscal total expenditure to GDP rising again. Fiscal revenue as a share of GDP declined, including budget - internal revenue and government - funded revenue. As a result, government bond supply grew at a high rate. The monetary policy met market expectations, with a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP policy interest rate cut, supporting the growth of money supply and social financing [20][23][26]. 4. Analysis of the Policy Space for Demand - Side Stimulus in China in 2026 - In 2026, demand - side policies still need to be strengthened as the nominal GDP growth slowed down in the second half of 2025, possibly due to limited demand - side support. Monetary policy still has some room for action. Low - interest rates are consistent with supporting economic growth and social financing. The 10 - year Treasury yield in the range of 1.6 - 1.9% may be the central bank's perceived balance state [30][32][35]. 5. Outlook for China's Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2026 - Fiscal policy may keep the general deficit ratio stable, with the ratios of fiscal total expenditure and budget - internal revenue to GDP remaining stable. The decline in government - funded revenue as a share of GDP may be limited. Monetary policy is expected to be the focus of incremental policies, with two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. If only one 25BP reserve requirement ratio cut is implemented, the central bank will increase the base money supply [43][46][47]. 6. Challenges Faced by China's Bond Market: Lack of Duration Preference - As bank deposit growth slows down, the bond market faces the challenge of a lack of duration preference. The proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions has decreased, making it more difficult to balance the upward pressure on yields. Therefore, it is important for monetary policy to maintain interest rates in a low - level range [52][54][55]. 7. Main Conclusions - In 2026, fiscal policy may maintain the general deficit ratio stable compared to 2025, and monetary policy has room for two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. The coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have a significant impact on interest rates. The bond market in 2026 will still be affected by the lack of duration preference, but the pressure from the expected policy combination will be less than in 2025. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound with band trading opportunities, especially when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches or reaches 1.9% [57].