国投期货能源日报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor and suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is mainly driven by a loose supply - demand situation, with a downward trend in the central price. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, while low-sulfur fuel oil faces a supply - driven loose situation. The cost of asphalt is expected to rise due to supply shortages and high alternative costs. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The current crude oil market is in a pattern of inventory accumulation due to oversupply. In January 2026, the global crude oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure. The situation between the US and Venezuela is unlikely to provide sustainable fundamental support for oil price rebounds. If US sanctions on Venezuela are relaxed, Venezuelan oil production and exports may increase. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The recent strengthening of the cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors. The Venezuelan situation suppresses crude oil prices but supports high-sulfur fuel oil cracking. There are concerns about potential disruptions in heavy - product supply, which may increase the demand for fuel oil as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Geopolitical uncertainties in high - sulfur resource regions continue to affect raw material and high - sulfur fuel oil supply expectations. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to face supply - driven loosening pressure and its fundamentals remain weak. [3] Asphalt - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp drop in shipments to China. It is expected to significantly impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, although January arrivals are still sufficient according to Kpler data. The current futures price has factored in the increase in premiums and is now in a sideways trend. If domestic refineries switch to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian crude as alternatives, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude supply and the rising cost of alternative raw materials are expected to drive up asphalt production costs. [4]