南美丰产预期不改，连粕延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, maintaining a loose supply - demand pattern and limiting the upside potential of soybean prices. - The export sales progress of US soybeans is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the USDA report. - The market anticipates a tight supply in Q1. With the suspension of imported soybean auctions and the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price remains firm. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [3][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since December, the outer - market US soybeans have continuously declined from high levels, and the Dalian soybean meal has oscillated weakly. The inner - market is stronger than the outer - market. - By the end of December, the soybean meal 05 contract dropped 96 to close at 2,754 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.37%. The spot price of South China soybean meal rose 80 to 3,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. - The CBOT US soybeans March contract dropped 98 to close at 1,047.25 cents/bushel, a decline of 8.56%. - The market re - evaluated the export sales progress of US soybeans, which was still significantly slow, causing concerns about export demand. - Favorable weather in South American producing areas led to an upward adjustment of the expected Brazilian soybean output. The structure of near - strong and far - weak continued [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report showed that the global soybean output in the 2025/2026 season was 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons. The global soybean crushing demand was 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons. - The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season was 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.01%, slightly tightening compared with the previous year. - The overall adjustment of the report was limited, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose [12]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. - In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean planting area remained at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit remained at 53 bushels/acre, the export demand remained at 1.635 billion bushels, the ending inventory remained at 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 6.74% [16]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in November 2025 was 216.041 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% compared with October. - The 2025/2026 season (from September to November) US cumulative soybean crushing volume was 641.551 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/2026 season was 4.5%. - At the end of November 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.513 billion pounds [19]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 878,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 28.58 million tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared with 79.2% in the same period last year. - China's net purchase volume in that week was 470,000 tons, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 6.89 million tons, compared with 19.04 million tons in the same period last year [22]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 175 million tons, the export demand remained at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year, and the crushing demand remained at 59 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. - The ending inventory was 36.36 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 20.68%, with a slightly tightening supply - demand situation. - From January to November 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean export volume was 104.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8 million tons. The cumulative export volume to China was 82.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.77 million tons. - As of the week ending December 27, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 97.9%, and the harvesting progress was 0.1%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was expected to be above normal, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [26][27][31]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 48.5 million tons, and the import remained at 7.7 million tons. - The export demand was 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand was 41 million tons, the ending inventory was 22.84 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 40.46%. - As of the week ending December 30, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 82%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was slightly lower than normal but had improved significantly compared with the previous period, and the soil moisture was generally good [33][39]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - In November 2025, China's soybean import volume was 8.11 million tons, including 5.85 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 72%, and 1.78 million tons from Argentina, accounting for 22%. - From January to November 2025, the total soybean import volume was 103.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69 million tons. - As of the week ending January 6, 2026, the purchase plan for January shipments was completed, the completion rate for February shipments was 88%, and that for March shipments was 84%. The purchase volume of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was about 10.02 million tons [43]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 679,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 644,400 tons. - The soybean meal inventory was 1.1676 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 464,400 tons. - The unfulfilled contracts were 3.816 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 920,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 277,000 tons. - The national port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 405,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 504,200 tons. - As of the week of New Year's Day, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 204,400 tons, including 87,570 tons of spot trading and 116,830 tons of forward trading. The weekly average daily pick - up volume was 182,200 tons [47]. 3.3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In November 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. - The year - on - year growth rates of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 2.6%, 4.5%, and 0.1% respectively. - The ex - factory prices of major feed products decreased year - on - year, and the ex - factory prices of livestock and poultry compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed mainly decreased month - on - month. - The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 43.8%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 14.0% [54]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook for the Future - China's purchase of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach 10 - 11 million tons, with a completion rate of about 90%. The purchase rhythm of US soybeans will slow down. - The US soybean crushing demand may have some upward adjustment space. - The abundant harvest in South America is basically confirmed, limiting the upside of soybean prices. - The domestic oil mill soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is an expectation of tightening supply in the future. The basis remains strong, and the spot price rises steadily. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [65][66].