MPOB报告落地，预计棕榈油震荡走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, the crude oil supply remains loose, and the oil price continues to oscillate weakly. The implementation rhythm of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is uncertain, while the US EPA is expected to release the final rule of RVOs in Q1 2026, providing a relatively clear demand increment expectation. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will continue to increase in December 2025. The domestic palm oil market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the inventory increases with more arrivals. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is an expected increase in stocking demand. The rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and the import window for Canadian rapeseed is still closed, but the global rapeseed supply is loose. In January, due to festival stocking and the expectation of supply - demand tightening, palm oil is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with the price range between 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton [4][50] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since December, the oil and fat sector has oscillated weakly, then stabilized and entered an oscillating phase. By the end of December, on the domestic market, the palm oil 05 contract fell 94 to 8584 yuan/ton (a 1.08% decline), the soybean oil 05 contract fell 178 to 7862 yuan/ton (a 2.21% decline), and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 414 to 9087 yuan/ton (a 4.36% decline). On the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4050 ringgit/ton (a 1.75% decline), the CBOT US soybean oil main - continuous contract fell 4.03 to 48.55 cents/pound (a 7.66% decline), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 49.3 to 602.4 Canadian dollars/ton (a 7.56% decline). In the spot market, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 20 to 8590 yuan/ton (a 0.23% increase), the price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong Rizhao fell 210 to 8240 yuan/ton (a 2.49% decline), and the price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fell 80 to 10030 yuan/ton (a 0.79% decline) [9] - In mid - and early December, palm oil oscillated weakly due to the production - demand logic of Malaysian palm oil. High - frequency data showed increasing production and weak export demand, intensifying the inventory accumulation expectation and pressuring the futures price. Towards the end of the month, the export data improved, and the month - on - month increase in production narrowed, leading to a continuous rebound in price. The near - term supply of rapeseed oil was tight, with limited spot price decline. However, the new - year rapeseed supply is loose, and as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the tight situation will gradually ease, and the far - month contract is relatively weak. US soybean oil oscillated and declined due to concerns about export demand, the expected high yield in South America, and the slow progress of the US biodiesel policy [10] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - The MPOB's November data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons (a 5.3% month - on - month decrease), exports were 1.21 million tons (a 28.13% month - on - month decrease), and the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The report was generally bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reduction season. With the approaching of holidays, there is an expected increase in domestic stocking demand, which provides support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process [22] 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.04% month - on - month, and production decreased 34.48% month - on - month. From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased 7.44% compared with the same period of the previous month. In terms of exports, from January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 31.12% increase compared with the same period of the previous month. In December 2025, different institutions' data on export volume showed different trends [30] 3.2.3. Indonesia Situation - In October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production (including palm kernel oil) was 4.76 million tons, a 460,000 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 48.09 million tons, a 4.31 - million - ton year - on - year increase. In October 2025, exports were 2.8 million tons, a 600,000 - ton month - on - month increase, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 27.7 million tons, a 2.86 - million - ton year - on - year increase. In October 2025, domestic consumption was 2.23 million tons, a 180,000 - ton month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative domestic consumption from January to October was 20.69 million tons, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. In October 2025, the inventory was 2.33 million tons [35] 3.2.4. Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In November 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.15 million tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 14.33 million tons, a 790,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. For different oils, the cumulative imports of palm oil from January to November 2025 decreased 1.22 million tons year - on - year; soybean oil imports increased 1.4 million tons year - on - year; and sunflower oil imports decreased 1.01 million tons year - on - year [38][39] 3.2.5. China's Oil and Fat Imports - In November 2025, China's palm oil imports were 330,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 166,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 49,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports of palm oil decreased 510,000 tons year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased 240,000 tons year - on - year, and sunflower oil imports decreased compared with the previous year. The total imports of the three major oils in November 2025 were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 4.67 million tons [41] 3.2.6. Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic areas was 2.0777 million tons, a 23,300 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 201,900 - ton increase from the same period of the previous year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.081 million tons, palm oil inventory was 733,800 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 270,000 tons [43] 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - In the first half of 2026, the crude oil supply remains loose, and the oil price continues to oscillate weakly. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, but the implementation rhythm is uncertain. The US EPA is expected to release the final rule of RVOs in Q1 2026, and the US plans to cancel the import of Chinese waste oils, cut the import of rapeseed oil and beef tallow to expand the use of US soybean oil for biodiesel [48] - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will continue to increase in December 2025. The domestic palm oil market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the inventory increases with more arrivals. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is an expected increase in stocking demand. The rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and the import window for Canadian rapeseed is still closed, but the global rapeseed supply is loose. The market unanimously expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to accumulate at the end of December, and the release of the MPOB report is awaited for guidance. In January, high - frequency data shows a continued decline in Malaysian palm oil production and a possible improvement in export demand, providing support for prices. The implementation rhythm of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain. With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, Canadian rapeseed oil may re - enter the domestic market, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Overall, in January, due to festival stocking and the expectation of supply - demand tightening from loose to tight, palm oil is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with the price range between 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton [49][50]