工业硅月报：淡季需求走弱，工业硅承压下行-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, at the crucial start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the central bank will use reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently, continue expansionary fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, integrate technological innovation with industrial upgrading, promote green energy transformation and upgrading, and pursue high - quality development. In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, high - tech manufacturing profit growth accelerated, and CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, showing signs of stabilizing and recovering domestic demand [3][50]. - On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remains at 80%, but some enterprises have routine maintenance and production cuts at the beginning of the year. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan drops significantly during the dry season, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia is generally stable. The supply shows a marginal decline, and social inventory is at a high level [3][50]. - On the demand side, anti - monopoly supervision in the polysilicon industry dampens market sentiment. Under the background of silicon wafer price cuts to reduce inventory, both volume and price continue to weaken. Battery manufacturers face increased cost pressure due to rising silver prices and their price - increase attempts are resisted by downstream customers. Component leaders mostly produce based on sales, gradually increasing production cuts to reduce inventory backlogs. Demand for centralized projects shows marginal cooling at the end of the year, with most projects on hold or postponed. Traditional industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy face downward consumption pressure. It is expected that in January 2026, the demand side will face downward pressure in the off - season, and the anti - monopoly policy in polysilicon may drag down consumer confidence. Overall, the industrial silicon price in January 2026 is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with the price center likely to move down compared to December [3][37][50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 December Industrial Silicon Market Review Industrial Silicon Futures Price Fluctuated within a Range - In December 2025, industrial silicon showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The main 2512 contract operated in the range of 8120 - 9240 yuan/ton, with the price center lower than the previous month. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and industrial enterprise profit growth remained stable. A polysilicon anti - involution platform was launched. On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained above 80%, production in the southwest was low during the dry season, and production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu increased. On the demand side, polysilicon manufacturers planned price adjustments, silicon wafer prices were close to the cash cost line, battery manufacturers signaled price increases due to cost pressure, and component manufacturers' price - increase attempts were resisted by downstream customers. The short - term sharp decline in polysilicon futures prices dragged down the industrial silicon price [8]. The Spot Market Remained Stable with a Slight Decline - In December 2025, the number of operating furnaces in the three major industrial silicon producing areas in China was 240, with an overall operating rate of 30.1%. Electricity prices in the southwest increased during the dry season, raising production costs. The operating rate in Xinjiang rose above 80% but decreased slightly at the end of the month due to production cuts by some large factories. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased due to high electricity prices, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia was stable. Domestic production in December decreased slightly to 39.7 million tons. By the end of December, social inventory decreased slightly to 55.3 million tons. Mainstream 553 grade spot prices fluctuated moderately. It is expected that in January 2026, the prices of domestic mainstream grades will continue to fluctuate within a range, and the spot market is expected to operate stably [11][12]. Macroeconomic Analysis In December, the Manufacturing PMI Returned to the Expansion Range, and High - Tech Manufacturing Profit Growth Accelerated - In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, the first expansion since April. Large - scale enterprise PMI was 50.8, up 1.5% month - on - month, and medium - sized enterprise PMI was 49.8, approaching the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7, indicating accelerating manufacturing production; the new order index was 50.8, showing improved market demand; the raw material inventory index was 47.8, with a narrowing decline in raw material inventory; the employment index was 48.2, indicating a decline in employment sentiment; and the supplier delivery index was 50.2, indicating faster delivery times. In November 2025, industrial enterprise profits decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative profit from January to November increased by 0.1% year - on - year, maintaining positive cumulative growth for the fourth consecutive month. From January to November, high - tech manufacturing profits increased by 10.0% year - on - year, 2.0 percentage points faster than from January to October, and 9.9 percentage points higher than the average of all large - scale industrial enterprises [16][17]. Fundamental Analysis Northern Production Declined from a High Level, and Production in the Southwest was Low during the Dry Season - In 2025, China's industrial silicon production showed fluctuations. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a pattern of low at first and high later, with a cumulative production of 1.9248 million tons from January to November, accounting for 52.03%. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places was limited. Overall, in the context of anti - involution policies, China's industrial silicon supply showed a contraction trend [21][22]. In November, Industrial Silicon Exports Increased by 22% Month - on - Month - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 661,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In November, the export volume was 54,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. China's industrial silicon exports are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. With the recovery of foreign trade exports and the development of the photovoltaic industry in emerging markets, the export scale of industrial silicon is expected to continue to grow, and the export volume in January 2026 is expected to be between 50,000 and 70,000 tons [25]. In December, Social Inventory was at a High Level, and Warehouse Receipt Inventory Faced Centralized Cancellations - By December 31, 2025, the national industrial silicon social inventory decreased slightly to 5.53 million tons, still at a high level. The warehouse receipt quantity on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,231 lots, equivalent to 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.9%. After the implementation of the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, mainstream 5 - series products became the main delivery models. It is expected that in January 2026, China's social inventory will continue to rise [28]. The Anti - Involution of the Photovoltaic Industry Entered a Crucial Stage, and the Consumption of Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy was Relatively Sluggish - Polysilicon: Anti - monopoly supervision was strengthened, and a new platform for capacity clearance was established. From January to November 2024, the cumulative production of polysilicon was 1.206 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.3%. The anti - monopoly policy hit market confidence and led to a sharp decline in futures prices. - Silicon wafers: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 607,000 tons. Facing over - capacity and high inventory, many enterprises cut production in the fourth quarter, and the overall operating rate dropped to about 45%. - Battery cells: The price showed a downward trend throughout the year. In the third quarter, the overseas orders of 183N battery cells decreased, and the domestic demand for 210N battery cells weakened. - Components: The demand for distributed projects was weak, while the centralized market improved slightly in the fourth quarter. Most component enterprises produced based on sales and increased production cuts to reduce inventory. - Organic silicon: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of DMC was 2.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The industry faced over - capacity and weak terminal consumption in the first half of the year. After the implementation of anti - involution policies in the fourth quarter, enterprises jointly cut production and raised prices, and the price rebounded to 13,600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in January 2026, the organic silicon market will remain stable in terms of volume and price. - Aluminum alloy: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.8%. In December, the processing fee of aluminum rods in the Foshan market showed a short - term increase but then declined. It is expected that in January 2026, the production of aluminum alloy will decline slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods will face pressure [30][32][34][35][37]. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, in 2026, at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the central bank will implement expansionary policies, and domestic demand shows signs of recovery. - On the supply side, production in Xinjiang may decline due to maintenance, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will be low during the dry season, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia will be stable. Supply will show a marginal decline, and inventory will remain high. - On the demand side, the demand for the photovoltaic industry and traditional industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy will face downward pressure in the off - season. - Overall, the industrial silicon price in January 2026 is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with the price center likely to be lower than in December [50][51].