宏观经济专题研究：张图看大宗品开年狂欢

Group 1: Market Trends - The global commodity market has entered a structural uptrend since late 2025, led by industrial and precious metals, while traditional cyclical products have shown lackluster performance[1] - LME copper prices surged from under $8,000/ton to over $13,000/ton, a cumulative increase of over 60%, despite the US manufacturing PMI remaining in a contraction zone of 48.2%-48.3%[2] - The divergence between commodity prices and manufacturing demand indicates a decoupling from traditional manufacturing cycles, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain security concerns[16] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The current market features extreme differentiation among commodities, with indicators like the copper-oil ratio exceeding two standard deviations, reflecting a fundamental shift in global economic growth models[3] - The transition from a traditional growth model centered on real estate and infrastructure to a digital economy model focused on "computing power + electricity" is creating new demand chains for commodities[3] - Major tech companies are expected to maintain over 20% capital expenditure growth in AI infrastructure, significantly impacting demand for conductive materials like copper and silver[31] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market is entering a new paradigm driven by "computing power + security," where geopolitical risks create a safety premium, enhancing the financial attributes of commodities[4] - Short-term risks include potential price corrections for certain commodities that have surged too quickly, possibly overextending future demand expectations[4] - Economic indicators show a decline in fixed asset investment at -2.6% year-on-year, while retail sales and exports have shown modest growth of 1.3% and 5.9% respectively[7]