2026年Q1可转债投资策略：淡化仓位择时，深挖板块个券

Group 1 - The report indicates a shift in the convertible bond market from a positioning mindset to a trading mindset since Q4 2025, with pricing anchors transitioning from derivative pricing to "underlying stock" pricing, leading to increased demand for convertible bonds [4][41] - The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the divergence in positions has ended, and investors should focus on deepening their analysis of sectors and individual bonds rather than timing their positions [4][41] - The report emphasizes the need for a solid allocation strategy, recommending a mix of low-priced and high-priced convertible bonds to enhance returns, with expected returns of 4%-8% for low-priced bonds and around 17% for high-priced bonds [4][41] Group 2 - The report highlights that since Q4 2025, the performance of convertible bonds has been relatively stable compared to underlying stocks, with a noted lower risk of decline [8][39] - It is observed that the convertible bond market has experienced a bull market positioning, with high-priced and small-cap convertible bonds showing significant excess returns, although this trend has diminished post-September 2025 [11][39] - The report identifies specific convertible bonds for different strategies, including low volatility, stable, and flexible combinations, indicating a diverse approach to investment in the convertible bond market [4][39] Group 3 - The report notes that the convertible bond market is currently facing high redemption risks, particularly for equity-type convertible bonds, which are trading at historically low valuations [33][39] - It discusses the performance of convertible bonds based on their remaining duration, indicating that bonds with less than two years remaining typically perform poorly, while new and recently issued bonds have shown better performance [20][39] - The report also mentions that the market is experiencing a significant outflow of funds from convertible bond ETFs, while public funds are increasing their holdings, indicating a shift in investment strategies [38][39]