贵金属市场周报-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated widely. Silver price volatility intensified significantly, gold price stabilized and rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio rose. Geopolitical risks in Latin America boosted the safe - haven property of gold. US labor market data showed differentiation, but the service sector PMI was unexpectedly strong. If the Venezuela situation does not cool down quickly next week, non - farm payrolls are weak, and Fed officials signal rate cuts, the precious metals price center may remain high. In the medium - term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short - term correction risks should be watched out for. The recommended trading ranges for next week are 4300 - 4500 dollars per ounce for London gold and 70 - 85 dollars per ounce for London silver [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - This week, the precious metals market was affected by long - position profit - taking and fluctuations in Fed rate - cut expectations. The US taking tough action against Venezuela strengthened global geopolitical risk concerns. US initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 last week, still at a historically low level. In October, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month. US labor market data was divided, with ADP private employment and JOLTS job openings weaker than expected, but the ISM services index in December unexpectedly rebounded. Looking ahead to next week, if the Venezuela situation persists, non - farm payrolls are poor, and Fed officials hint at rate cuts, precious metals prices may remain high, but short - term correction risks due to concentrated long - position liquidation should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, a dip - buying strategy is recommended [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the precious metals market continued to oscillate strongly at a high level. As of January 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 rose 9.70% week - on - week, and the Shanghai gold main contract 2602 rose 2.96% week - on - week. This week, the net positions of foreign gold and silver ETFs had slight outflows. As of January 8, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.32% month - on - month, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1.40% month - on - month. As of December 30, 2025, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both decreased. This week, the basis of gold and silver strengthened. As of January 8, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 0.46 yuan per gram, with a basis ratio of 0.05%; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 970 yuan per kilogram, with a basis ratio of 5.26%. This week, the gold inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges increased, while silver inventories decreased [6][10][11] 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - As of November 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand increased. China's silver import volume was 263,505.88 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 9.90%, and the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 21.23%. Due to the growth in silver demand for semiconductors, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to stabilize. As of November 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [32][36][38] 3.3.2 Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 4%; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 22%; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The silver supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 2%; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 26% [44][48][50] 3.3.3 Gold Supply and Demand - According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, and a total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [54] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield stabilized and rebounded. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased. The US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy gold, about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons respectively [58][62][66]